XAI

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The platform's own early signals for this company — hard-to-fake, and where one preceded a real raise, the measured lead.

• SEC Form D — secondary demand 2 signals · latest 2026-03-23

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• bullish assessment Unattributed

  Most of these companies that they're investing in, I think, have the economic wherewithal to raise the capital in other places. Elon could certainly raise it in other places.

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  I think it suggests that XAI and SpaceX AI has a shot of being a real player in coding.

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  your colleague at Altimeter, Freda, also, she calculated a 55% IRR on Colossus I.

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  XAI's deal with Google for cloud computing generates more operating profit per gigawatt than Anthropic, than Meta, than Google, than OpenAI.

• neutral prediction Unattributed

  should he find the ability to turn those products that he has under his auspices into something that is powerful and really competitive and widely adopted when compared to OpenAI and Anthropic, that could just throw a lot of these efforts out of whack.

• mixed assessment Unattributed

  Grok and XAI and SpaceX in general is kind of behind these other companies in a lot of different ways. But they bought Cursor, they're sort of building on what Cursor had built.

• bullish fact_claim David Friedberg

  Grok for government via Starshield is from, obviously, Grok and SpaceX AI. Faster ops analysis, supply chain and acquisition work, quote unquote, playbooks and adaptive reasoning models. Obviously, that might be for maybe some more forward-looking.

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  we are not fully, fully integrated yet.

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  because of the turn that we had at XAI, so much SpaceX leadership and engineering went into that, basically went in there.

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  there's been a lot of churn at XAI for sure.

• bullish prediction Unattributed

  We don't see any drop. Yeah. We see no drop in demand at all.

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  But honestly, right now, and it is a little embarrassing, but computer rental, it's a heck of a business.

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  I used to be horrified at our expenditures before the XAI acquisition.

• neutral assessment Unattributed

  We're getting integrated faster than I thought. It's probably not as fast as Elon wants it.

• neutral assessment Unattributed

  because of the turn that we had at XAI, so much SpaceX leadership and engineering went into that, basically went in there.

• bearish assessment Unattributed

  there's been a lot of churn at XAI for sure.

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  Now they're adding two more, ChatGPT and Grok, for government.

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  Pentagon has rolled out its own chat GPT and grok for the military. This is interesting. Yesterday, Department of War. I prefer when we call it the Defense Department of War. It's a little too aggressive for me. I think we should be seeking out more, but okay. Finished an eight-month rollout of a special version of Grok and chat GPT designed for military personnel. New tools include chat GPT-MIL, which handles paperwork, logistics, and policy work, grok for government, which handles supply chain

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  than in the past that's a great point yeah yeah i'd agree with um josh on that at the same time it's interesting elon's got this network of tesla twitter neural link boring company and all these others who he's umbilically connected with and so he's got this proprietary data set especially from x you know where he's able to kind of build out crock he's got sort of this open source platform you know um good luck mistral i feel like you know he's going to be able to leverage a lot of his network t

• mixed assessment Unattributed

  difference between this one and his other companies is this one he's coming from behind with tesla it was effectively the first electric car company with spacex it was the first private rocket rocket company i think the same goes for the boring company neural link too he's got a big a big lead to come back from here and his competitors are also super well funded so not saying you can't do it it's it's always scary to bet against elon but i think the starting position is very different here

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  I mean, I mean, there's an unlimited, um, appetite to invest in these companies and to invest in that founder. So I don't think funding is the limitation here.

• neutral assessment Unattributed

  If they are going to make their own bullet factory, if they want to own their own munitions pipeline by making chips, $6 billion is a down payment on this company versus a, a conclusion of its fund rate.

• bullish endorsement Unattributed

  And if you are going to be in an arms race, you better make your own goddamn bullets.

• neutral assessment Unattributed

  I think the answer to that is yes. You're going to get whatever compute you can get right now. And then I think the question you didn't ask was, are you going to make your own Silicon? And I think you got to make your own Silicon. I think you have to look at this and say, um, how do I not have an Nvidia dependency? And how, so it's like, how do I leverage Nvidia today? And how do I not have an Nvidia, um, limitation in the future?

• bullish prediction Unattributed

  Uh, so in two or three years, they're at parity. And here's a way to play this.

• mixed prediction Unattributed

  I think, you know, maybe they're a year behind and they close, you know, three months every year.

• neutral assessment Unattributed

  I had, I played with Grok this morning in anticipation of talking to you. It is still a very, um, chatty. Nascent. Nascent, you might say assistant.

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  So we know that XAI put together Grok one, uh, November 23, Grok 1.5, March of this year, they open sourced the first Grok.

• bearish criticism Unattributed

  So my concern, when I look at this huge amount of money and I get the upside, if you win this market, this bet will look like the cheapest money ever spent on technology companies, but they're going to go ahead and take a billion, 2 billion, and they're going to train models. What's the shelf life on that investment? Is there a concern that they're going to essentially keep innovating so fast, they're, they're deprecating their old investment so quickly that 6 billion is chump change versus a ki

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  Um, just since June, they've done heavier, which was $130 million round Decagon Mistral Valor labs, and of course, XAI now they weren't leading all those, but it does go to show that they have the deal flow.

• bullish endorsement Unattributed

  there's a big prize at the end of the ai rainbow and if you were going to place a bet on who might do well here uh elon's not the person to bet against kind of the person you want to bet with he gets it he was early he funded open ai and he's got a unique data set inside of twitter that's real time and powerful in the same way reddit is in the same way

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  xai is working on a potential 10 billion funding round that would value the company at about 75 billion now details to come we'll find out more we'll figure out if it's sequoia or andreason or valor that will lead this round but i think it goes to show that after all the deep sea hype hysteria enthusiasm excitement people that are building these systems are still looking to raise a lot of capital to put a lot of capital to work on building the infra and the investment and the personnel they need

• bullish assessment David Friedberg

  xai is doing something interesting which is i think they get x's corpus which is a huge advantage so the huge advantage is what i was talking about on glenn back today the huge advantage is if you have a real-time data source giving you information and so whoever's got real-time data whether it's reddit or x or facebook they're going to have such a huge huge llm advantage

• bullish prediction Unattributed

  player in the marketplace instantly right there'll be top three player in the market instantly

• bullish assessment Jason Calacanis

  i think this just locks in xai as a top call it three or four

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  the deal values xai the ai company at 33 billion so essentially 45 billion minus debt

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  It would make sense that the closed products with lots of backing, those three have the most backing and the most hardware would do the best.

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  So it's like, it's a three horse race right now. Yeah. Mistral is not in it currently. Even Meta is not in it.

• bullish assessment David Friedberg

  and then XAI right behind them in third place. So you put those three together. Now you're looking at 90, 90.

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  it's interesting to look at where grok sits today this is the old kind of legacy lm arena user but it's pretty good and if you take a look here you see google open ai and then right there is grok and right there yeah

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  you think about like colossus that elon built that really i think is a big part of why grok hit these things is that they have this giant cluster

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  xai's grok 4 gave us a little bit more of an edge over the current leading state-of-the-art models from china so this is to me a bit of a national security point wrapped in a first amendment ribbon

• mixed fact_claim Unattributed

  some democrats in congress are annoyed with x ai over when grok 3 went a little bit nutty the other day and they want grok to remove some posts

• neutral assessment Unattributed

  it is interesting to see that the price trend we see in general is not manifesting at the edge and i think you know xai is trying to push the price point further up

• mixed assessment Unattributed

  xai is trying to push the price point further up and you know godspeed to them if it works out because this stuff's expensive to build

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  xai introduced a new plan that costs 300 a month and uh gives greater access to grok 3 grok 4 and grok 4 heavy now 300 a month is actually a new high watermark because i believe you can pay google 250 you can pay open ai 200 you can pay perplexity one or 200 bucks cursor 200 bucks and now 300

• neutral fact_claim David Friedberg

  this market is closing on July 31st so there's no way for XAI to drop another model

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  everyone kind of went back to thinking that we're going to see essentially closed source AI run the world as XAI, Anthropic, and OpenAI kind of battle it out

• mixed assessment Unattributed

  with the release of grok 4 x AI seems to have made a dent and then they've kind of lost it again which is interesting because the market is now rebetting actually more than

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  Apple is behaving in a manner that makes it impossible for any AI company besides OpenAI to reach number one in the app store, which is an unequivocal antitrust violation.

• bullish fact_claim Unattributed

  in the suit, XAI accuses both Apple of having a smartphone monopoly and OpenAI of having kind of a general consumer AI monopoly, which I thought was very, very interesting.

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  Let's talk about XAI suing Apple and OpenAI. Jason, if you go back in time a couple of weeks, Elon Musk discussed that he was unhappy with what he considered to be unfair treatment at the hands of Cupertino. And he said it was going to sue them. And then we all forgot about it for a couple of days. And then the suit dropped today.

• neutral assessment Unattributed

  It's gotta be one in two are open AI and XAI. You gotta think.

• bullish fact_claim Chamath Palihapitiya

  And that's probably XAI or open AI, I think the biggest because Colossus was the biggest. So it's gotta be XAI is number one.

• mixed criticism Unattributed

  they've been building good models, but I don't think they've been commercializing them or getting revenue out of them as effectively as I might have expected, but here they have a demonstrable straight up hit.

• bullish fact_claim Unattributed

  the teal bars are when Grok 4 came out and their usage did go up by maybe 30, 40%. Then they started letting people use Grok code fast one and it tripled to up to 80 billion tokens. I think that's a day. So it's been a dramatic increase in XAI's, I would say in market share.

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  here we're seeing it, uh, as the, I guess, way for XAI to catch up when you're behind, when you have a couple of players ahead of you, what are strategies for startups? You know, one of them is to make something free or to make it dirt cheap that gets people's attention.

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  Grok Code Fast 1 is the cheapest and the highest tokens per second. And then if you go look at, you know, Grok 4 and Gemini, GPT-5, Claude Sonnet, Sonic, very expensive.

• bullish endorsement Unattributed

  this one is fast and cheap. For use, it's only 20 cents per million input tokens and only $1.50 per million output tokens. And for reference, Jason, that's cheaper than GPT-5 mini. And it has a really, really quick token throughput. So it's just quite impressive.

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  if i told you before xi had released an llm and chat gpt and claude had and gemini had run away with it should xai jump into the race uh you might say no it's too late it's never too late somebody could start an llm right now

• bullish prediction Unattributed

  if you're the irs and you want to start implementing this technology at some point you might say you know what can i get some on-prem and one of these companies xai might say sure we're going to set up a bunch of h-100s at your location or we're going to cordon off in our data center a bunch of these inference machines it'll be your own world nobody can get into it we can't get into it there's all kinds of ways uh for this to get monetized later

• bearish criticism Unattributed

  as an investor jason doesn't that make you a little scared if you don't have the right data your company can't make the right decisions

• bullish prediction Unattributed

  i think they're trying to jump start the government's interest in these technologies and if they do get value from it long term they'll want to buy the newer fresher models that come out in the future and they'll eventually want to pay for it they'll eventually want it to have on-prem versions of it

• bearish criticism Unattributed

  my question is how the hell can these companies afford that because they're all losing so much money and now they're going to support the government for effectively zero

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  xai has priced its government ai product at jason i'm very proud to report not 69 cents they didn't do that instead they went with 42 cents and so we all need to give google points because google priced its ai product for government at 47 cents so xai had to go lower than that

• bullish assessment Jason Calacanis

  if i told you before xi had released an llm and chat gpt and claude had and gemini had run away with it should xai jump into the race uh you might say no it's too late it's never too late somebody could start an llm right now i know that sounds crazy

• mixed assessment Unattributed

  crock 4.1 came out people got really excited about it maybe XAI is going to win and then Gemini 3 came out and got crushed it again so the market is once again betting that Google is going to run the AI game through the end of 2025

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  look at what XAI did, because this is a company Jason that started later than OpenAI and has really done, I'm just going to say, impressive things. I know a lot of my friend group aren't the biggest Elon fans, but I do think it's important to give credit where it's due. And Grok 4.1 is really good across a number of metrics. One, they did a lot of work on reducing hallucinations, which I think is a very important step compared to Grok 4 fast. It's dramatic improvement. And I think most important

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  Yeah, because remember, XAI bought X.com.

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  230 was the number that I saw in their series E of memory serves.

• bullish endorsement Alex Wilhelm

  I wonder if it's gonna become like everything but the GPU, because I don't think we're gonna have EUV processing on the moon for a while. That's probably a bit outside this time horizon. But if you could build everything but the GPU, that really lowers your launch cost because you don't have to bring that much up. So I love that idea.

• bullish assessment Alex Wilhelm

  the idea as far as we can suss it out thus far is that eventually we're gonna have a lot more compute. Eventually we're gonna need a lot more power. Where is there a lot of available power? Up in orbit where there's quite a lot of sunlight. Put all that together. SpaceX can send more mass up to orbit. We can build more data centers up there. XAI needs compute. So we're gonna build XAI's AI feature in space via our SpaceX.

• neutral fact_claim Chamath Palihapitiya

  breaking news story as Alex Wilhelm and I were on air recording today's Twist episode. We saw news from Steve Jurvetson that SpaceX has acquired XAI.

• bullish endorsement Chamath Palihapitiya

  I have Gemini and Grok as the two anchor apps because I'm so reliant on both of them.

• bullish endorsement Chamath Palihapitiya

  So yes, I may use Grok image because I love that. And it's just much better.

• bullish assessment David Sacks

  Then you've got xai, which I think is the best at current events because of the integration with x. And also, Elon seems to be able to scale his data center, his training cluster, the fastest, the fastest, he's got, you know, he had classes one, now he's got classes two, and that portends good things for rock five, it's gonna be trained on the largest cluster of blackwells.

VentureSignalScore 79/100 for xai, composed from 1 of 4 components (emerging formula), discounted ×0.79 for 30% signal coverage