Every experimental signal is judged on what actually happened: did it fire before a real funding round, and by how many days? Below is every resolved prediction — the lead is measured, not claimed.
Every resolved prediction the signal, and the raise it preceded
| Company | Signal | Fired | Raise announced | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI late-stage | TLS certificate transparency | 2024-11-24 | 2025-11-18 | 359d early |
| Chai Discovery | TLS certificate transparency | 2025-07-31 | 2026-07-14 | 348d early |
| Astroforge | Federal research grants | 2024-03-01 | 2025-01-31 | 336d early |
| Micro1 | SEC Form D — secondary demand | 2025-10-27 | 2026-09-26 | 334d early |
| SpaceX late-stage | TLS certificate transparency | 2022-10-13 | 2023-08-04 | 295d early |
| CodeWords | TLS certificate transparency | 2025-07-17 | 2026-05-07 | 294d early |
| 8090 Labs | TLS certificate transparency | 2025-09-08 | 2026-06-29 | 294d early |
| Scale AI late-stage | TLS certificate transparency | 2024-08-13 | 2025-06-01 | 292d early |
| Anduril late-stage | Federal contract awards | 2022-06-22 | 2023-03-23 | 274d early |
| Nscale | SEC Form D — secondary demand | 2025-12-31 | 2026-09-25 | 268d early |
| Impulse Space | Federal contract awards | 2026-01-12 | 2026-09-16 | 247d early |
| Hermeus | Federal contract awards | 2025-08-11 | 2026-04-14 | 246d early |
| Lyzr | TLS certificate transparency | 2025-11-08 | 2026-07-09 | 243d early |
| Anthropic late-stage | SEC Form D — secondary demand | 2025-04-25 | 2025-12-18 | 237d early |
| General Intuition | SEC Form D — secondary demand | 2026-02-10 | 2026-09-30 | 232d early |
| Gallatin AI | Federal contract awards | 2026-02-23 | 2026-10-08 | 227d early |
| Groq | SEC Form D — secondary demand | 2025-11-14 | 2026-06-22 | 220d early |
| Vikk AI | TLS certificate transparency | 2025-12-17 | 2026-07-21 | 216d early |
| Rillet | SEC Form D — secondary demand | 2026-01-22 | 2026-08-21 | 211d early |
| Coralogix | TLS certificate transparency | 2025-11-04 | 2026-06-01 | 209d early |
| Perplexity | TLS certificate transparency | 2024-05-15 | 2024-12-01 | 200d early |
| CARPL.ai | TLS certificate transparency | 2025-12-23 | 2026-07-01 | 190d early |
| Astra | Federal Register notices | 2025-08-21 | 2026-02-24 | 187d early |
| Etched | SEC Form D — secondary demand | 2026-01-27 | 2026-07-23 | 177d early |
| Ampersand | Federal Register notices | 2026-04-27 | 2026-10-06 | 162d early |
| Valarian | TLS certificate transparency | 2026-02-08 | 2026-07-14 | 156d early |
| OpenAI late-stage | TLS certificate transparency | 2022-07-30 | 2023-01-01 | 155d early |
| Firehawk | SEC Form D — secondary demand | 2026-04-15 | 2026-09-11 | 149d early |
| Anthropic late-stage | SEC Form D — secondary demand | 2026-03-13 | 2026-07-30 | 139d early |
| Mistral AI | TLS certificate transparency | 2026-04-24 | 2026-09-08 | 137d early |
| Fireworks | TLS certificate transparency | 2026-03-07 | 2026-07-16 | 131d early |
| Together AI | SEC Form D — secondary demand | 2026-02-24 | 2026-07-01 | 127d early |
| Mecka AI | SEC Form D — secondary demand | 2026-06-17 | 2026-10-07 | 112d early |
| Lambda | TLS certificate transparency | 2025-12-02 | 2026-02-26 | 86d early |
| Qdrant | TLS certificate transparency | 2025-12-25 | 2026-03-12 | 77d early |
| Starcloud | SEC Form D — secondary demand | 2026-06-09 | 2026-08-21 | 73d early |
| Sail Research | TLS certificate transparency | 2026-04-28 | 2026-06-25 | 58d early |
| Crusoe | SEC Form D — secondary demand | 2026-07-23 | 2026-09-17 | 56d early |
| Whoop late-stage | Federal contract awards | 2020-09-21 | 2020-11-12 | 52d early |
| Superhuman | SEC Form D — secondary demand | 2026-08-07 | 2026-09-25 | 49d early |
| Blacksmith | Federal Register notices | 2026-06-25 | 2026-08-12 | 48d early |
| Harvey | investor_commentary | 2023-04-28 | 2026-09-09 | 47d early |
| CopilotKit | TLS certificate transparency | 2026-03-24 | 2026-05-05 | 42d early |
| Gradium | TLS certificate transparency | 2026-05-28 | 2026-07-09 | 42d early |
| AegisAI | TLS certificate transparency | 2026-06-13 | 2026-07-23 | 40d early |
| Respan | TLS certificate transparency | 2026-02-15 | 2026-03-18 | 31d early |
| Cursor | TLS certificate transparency | 2023-10-10 | 2023-11-08 | 29d early |
| Prime Intellect | TLS certificate transparency | 2026-06-10 | 2026-07-08 | 28d early |
| PicoJool | SEC Form D — secondary demand | 2026-08-28 | 2026-09-24 | 27d early |
| Higgsfield | SEC Form D — secondary demand | 2026-07-22 | 2026-08-17 | 26d early |
| Daytona | TLS certificate transparency | 2026-01-15 | 2026-02-05 | 21d early |
| Bristol | Federal Register notices | 2026-07-30 | 2026-08-19 | 20d early |
| Supabase | TLS certificate transparency | 2026-09-03 | 2026-09-22 | 19d early |
| OpenRouter | TLS certificate transparency | 2026-05-11 | 2026-05-26 | 15d early |
| Trase | TLS certificate transparency | 2026-06-15 | 2026-06-24 | 9d early |
| Baz | TLS certificate transparency | 2026-06-20 | 2026-06-29 | 9d early |
| Etched | SEC Form D — secondary demand | 2026-08-13 | 2026-08-18 | 5d early |
| Gallatin AI | Federal contract awards | 2025-08-28 | 2026-10-09 | 1d early |
Only private venture companies are credited. Lead = calendar days from when the signal fired to when the raise was announced. Directional and capped at 365 days — a signal only counts if the raise followed it within a credible window. Misses count as fully as hits in the ledger's rates.