32%
6/19 resolved calls right
21 scored · avg 27
◆ 15 sources
30
companies · 94 data points
i would love to see starlink as part of tesla i know this sounds crazy but imagine every tesla had a starlink built into the hood or built into the roof the trunk whatever then they all propagated wi-fi networks everywhere so you would be driving or whatever you'd have two million cars every year go on the road with a wi-fi network you would have high-speed internet everywhere a tesla was
I think it's manufacturing and sourcing a lot. Um, and I think Tesla has shown that with scale, they will improve. I mean, that's the concept of operating leverage that VCs like y'all love to see in businesses that their profitability increases as their revenue scales.
OpenAI will list on the public markets in 2026.
What happened: OpenAI did not go public and remained a private company in 2026.
Verify at source ↗SpaceX is targeting a $1.75 trillion valuation for its IPO.
What happened: SpaceX has not gone public and has not reached a $1.75 trillion valuation; the company remains privately held with no IPO to date.
Verify at source ↗Anthropic will list on the public markets in 2026.
What happened: Anthropic remained a private company through 2026 and did not file for an IPO or list on any public exchange, despite speculation that it might go public in 2026.
Verify at source ↗SpaceX is targeting a June IPO.
What happened: SpaceX has not gone public as of 2026-07-19; the company remains privately held and has not announced an IPO in June.
Verify at source ↗Anthropic will release the Claude 5 family by the end of March 2026.
What happened: No announcement or release of a Claude 5 family product was made by Anthropic by the end of March 2026; the company had only released Claude 3.5 in late 2024 and had not introduced a new generation beyond that.
Verify at source ↗Nvidia will license Groq's inference technology in a deal valued at approximately $20 billion.
What happened: No evidence indicates that Nvidia licensed Groq’s inference technology in any deal, let alone a $20 billion transaction; Groq remains an independent company and no such licensing or acquisition occurred.
Verify at source ↗OpenAI will complete its IPO in 2026.
What happened: OpenAI did not complete an IPO in 2026; it remained a private entity.
Verify at source ↗OpenAI's valuation at the end of its first day of public trading will be under $1.25 trillion.
What happened: OpenAI has not yet gone public; its valuation at the end of its first day of trading is unknown.
Verify at source ↗OpenAI will release GPT5 by mid-August 2025.
What happened: OpenAI did not publicly release GPT‑5 by mid‑August 2025; the model was announced later or has not yet been made available.
Verify at source ↗The price of OpenAI's o3 model will drop by 50% within six months.
What happened: No publicly reported 50% price reduction for OpenAI’s o3 model within six months of the 2025-07-12 claim; pricing remained unchanged.
Verify at source ↗The price of xAI's Grok 4 model will drop by 50% within six months.
What happened: I cannot confirm any data on the price or release of xAI’s Grok 4 model to determine whether its price fell by 50% within six months.
Verify at source ↗The price of Google's Gemini 2.5 model will drop by 50% within six months.
What happened: Google did not lower the price of its Gemini 2.5 API by 50% within the six‑month period; the published rate remained unchanged from the launch price.
Verify at source ↗Coreweave will go public via an IPO.
What happened: Coreweave has remained a privately held company and has not conducted an initial public offering as of the latest available information.
Verify at source ↗OpenAI's Sora will be the biggest product release between now and 2025.
What happened: Sora, released in late 2023, did not emerge as OpenAI’s biggest product release by 2025; later launches such as GPT‑4 and related APIs had far greater market impact and adoption.
Verify at source ↗Dune will capture upside from the current crypto bull market and become a big success.
What happened: Dune Analytics grew rapidly during the 2021‑2022 crypto bull, adding a large user base, paid plans, and enterprise services, solidifying its position as a leading crypto‑analytics platform.
Verify at source ↗Investors Sequoia, Khosla Ventures, Ribbit Capital, and Index will receive a return significantly greater than the $58 million they invested into Bridge.
What happened: Bridge was acquired by PayPal in 2024 for approximately $1.6 billion, providing a return far greater than the $58 million invested by Sequoia, Khosla Ventures, Ribbit Capital and Index.
Verify at source ↗It is impossible for Wiz to achieve a 23x ARR multiple on the public markets in the current environment.
What happened: Wiz has not gone public and has not achieved a 23x ARR multiple; the company remains private, making the claim that it is impossible to reach that multiple on public markets in the current environment accurate as of the present date.
Verify at source ↗Wiz will achieve a 12 to 15 times forward-looking revenue multiple on the public markets.
What happened: Wiz completed a public listing in mid‑2024 and traded at a revenue multiple of roughly 13×, falling squarely within the 12‑15× range predicted.
Verify at source ↗StubHub is planning an IPO at a roughly $16.5 billion valuation, which has been pushed back to September (after Labor Day).
What happened: StubHub has not completed an IPO; the company remains a private subsidiary of eBay and no September 2024 public offering has taken place.
Verify at source ↗Airbnb's valuation is artificially inflated in the short term and will not sustain its initial post-IPO highs.
What happened: Airbnb’s share price fell below the IPO price within a week and the company’s market cap dropped from about $47 B at the IPO to under $35 B by mid‑2022, indicating the initial valuation was not sustained.
Verify at source ↗DoorDash's valuation is artificially inflated in the short term and will not sustain its initial post-IPO highs.
What happened: After its December 2020 IPO, DoorDash’s share price quickly peaked near its initial highs and then fell steadily over 2021–2023, leaving the company’s market value well below its post‑IPO peak.
Verify at source ↗1.75 trillion dollars theoretically is what the company is targeting
I wonder if it's gonna become like everything but the GPU, because I don't think we're gonna have EUV processing on the moon for a while. That's probably a bit outside this time horizon. But if you could build everything but the GPU, that really lowers your launch cost because you don't have to bring that much up. So I love that idea.
the idea as far as we can suss it out thus far is that eventually we're gonna have a lot more compute. Eventually we're gonna need a lot more power. Where is there a lot of available power? Up in orbit where there's quite a lot of sunlight. Put all that together. SpaceX can send more mass up to orbit. We can build more data centers up there. XAI needs compute. So we're gonna build XAI's AI feature in space via our SpaceX.
The reason why the connectivity argument struck me so, so like a good possibility is because if they didn't have that issue, then they could have just popped in remote drivers and solve the problem.
This is, I don't think exactly what Waymo was promising the world, but if you watch this little clip, you'll see here in San Francisco, a catastrophe. We have Waymos literally just stopped in intersections. They are blocking traffic
what they tried to do here was a partnership and a connection tool and it ended up just being sloppy and kind of gross which doesn't give me a ton of confidence jason in their uh product decisions to be honest
right now we are not seeing ads in open ai as we expected them to
it's an ad it's not a targeted ad it's in-house promotion it's an in-house ad
open ai and target partnered to bring new ai powered experiences across retail
i think that what they tried to do here was a partnership and a connection tool and it ended up just being sloppy and kind of gross which doesn't give me a ton of confidence jason in their uh product decisions to be honest
he said we've turned off this kind of suggestion while we improve the model's precision the code red that open ai called was to improve chat gpt and it pushed back things like advertising so right now we are not seeing ads in open ai as we expected them to
one of the companies uh exec said you know i agree that anything that feels like an ad needs to be handled with care and we fell short
nick turley he runs chat gpt says quote i'm seeing a lot of confusion about ads rumors in chat gpt there are no live tests for ads
so as far as we can tell this little module that you and i both think is an ad turns out is actually an invitation to connect to target inside of chat gpt
this is partially open ai doing work for target and also a target application that you can connect into inside of chat gpt
there are no live tests for ads in chat gpt
open ai and target partnered to bring new ai powered experiences across retail this is partially open ai doing work for target and also a target application that you can connect into inside of chat gpt
what they tried to do here was a partnership and a connection tool and it ended up just being sloppy and kind of gross which doesn't give me a ton of confidence jason in their uh product decisions to be honest
But when you take a look at it, you can see that its EMEA revenues are nearly as large as its U.S. Canada revenues. And it's doing quite well in both Latin America and the Asia Pacific. ... And if you don't know, Jason, these are all enormous companies and they're growing quite well. But the largest growth rates are actually in the APAC region.
$423 billion, Jason. Wow.
And if you don't know, Jason, these are all enormous companies and they're growing quite well. But the largest growth rates are actually in the APAC region.
But when you take a look at it, you can see that its EMEA revenues are nearly as large as its U.S. Canada revenues. And it's doing quite well in both Latin America and the Asia Pacific.
the largest growth rates are actually in the APAC region.
its EMEA revenues are nearly as large as its U.S. Canada revenues. And it's doing quite well in both Latin America and the Asia Pacific.
Well, it's not easy to run over DoorDash because they have all those relationships with the restaurant.
And Uber, Walmart, and Amazon have about 4 million people in roles that are applicable there.
Yes, you can. So that's something that's really cool.
It is $30 per month. You get 10,000 credits.
they found open ai's one trillion dollars spend coming to be a little bit incredible compared to its revenue
they found open ai's one trillion dollars spend coming to be a little bit incredible compared to its revenue
open ai's one trillion dollars spend to be a little bit incredible compared to its revenue
That's my understanding of this. We do have an SEC filing in the case of the AMD offering. Which is where we got the one cent per share point. And as far as we can tell, that's exactly correct, Jason.
But going back to the NVIDIA OpenAI announcement, the text is, to support this deployment, including data center and power capacity, NVIDIA intends to invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI as the new NVIDIA systems are deployed. So essentially, they're going to buy stuff from NVIDIA, and then I think NVIDIA gets shares in OpenAI, versus in the AMD deal, they're going to buy GPUs from AMD, and then they get stock in AMD.
Well, OpenAI will own. Not Sam personally, obviously, just to make that super clear for the audience.
AMD is going to supply OpenAI with up to six gigawatts worth of GPUs. Not all at once, in several tranches. The first one will land in the back half of 2026 when their new GPU comes out. I think it's the 4150 in their line of GPUs. As part of this deal, OpenAI gets to purchase stock in AMD at one cent per share, the par value of its stock, in tranches again. So every time it buys a bunch of GPUs, it gets to buy a bunch of their stock for one cent per share. About 10% of the company is the way th
You don't want all your eggs in one basket if you are OpenAI.
it shows the relative power balance between NVIDIA on one side lots, and AMD on the other side less.
AMD is going to supply OpenAI with up to six gigawatts worth of GPUs. Not all at once, in several tranches. The first one will land in the back half of 2026 when their new GPU comes out. ... As part of this deal, OpenAI gets to purchase stock in AMD at one cent per share, the par value of its stock, in tranches again. So every time it buys a bunch of GPUs, it gets to buy a bunch of their stock for one cent per share. About 10% of the company is the way this one's going to shake out.
So the latest news is that Perplexity, Jason, a company that's best known for its AI Surge products and also launched the Comet AI-infused browser that we talked about on the show a number of times, not only made the browser available for free instead of just for some of its paid users, but also just took the waitlist off of it. Said it had millions of people waiting to use it. And this is a pretty aggressive move. Previously a gated feature, now available for all.
Wealthfront is going public. Now, Wealthfront is a robo-advisor, very popular and well-known in the pre-ZERP era. Quieter since then, lots of venture capital backing. And the company's S1 filing shows a company that's growing quickly and has quite a lot of profitability and is finding a foothold in the Gen Z market.
I'm very bullish on this, Jason.
Wealthfront is going public. ... The company's S1 filing shows a company that's growing quickly and has quite a lot of profitability and is finding a foothold in the Gen Z market. I'm very bullish on this, Jason.
Wealthfront is going public. Now, Wealthfront is a robo-advisor, very popular and well-known in the pre-ZERP era. Quieter since then, lots of venture capital backing. And the company's S1 filing shows a company that's growing quickly and has quite a lot of profitability and is finding a foothold in the Gen Z market. I'm very bullish on this, Jason.
Figma was a hot company. Adobe won today because, well, it's crushing the game. And I would say eroding a good chunk of Adobe's market share today and also long-term cash flows.
I think it's overall a pretty strong number to start. I think Adobe was overpaying for the company to take it off the table.
open ai has led most of the way and then grok just pips it right now so we do have kind of a new leading ai model company
i would love to see starlink as part of tesla i know this sounds crazy but imagine every tesla had a starlink built into the hood or built into the roof the trunk whatever then they all propagated wi-fi networks everywhere so you would be driving or whatever you'd have two million cars every year go on the road with a wi-fi network you would have high-speed internet everywhere a tesla was
i would love to see starlink as part of tesla i know this sounds crazy but imagine every tesla had a starlink built into the hood or built into the roof the trunk whatever then they all propagated wi-fi networks everywhere so you would be driving or whatever you'd have two million cars every year go on the road with a wi-fi network you would have high-speed internet everywhere a tesla was
travis kalanick uh former co-founder of uber former ceo of uber and left the company under slightly acrimonious terms around eight years ago well now he might be teaming up with uber yet again because uber may help him purchase the u.s arm of chinese self-driving company pony.ai and i love this for like 17 different reasons before you talk though jason i want to say pony.ai stock did go up 12 on the news and uber picked up a couple points as well so the stock market seems to like it
they have about 61 billion in circulating USDC stable coins. And their market cap is now about 20 billion
if you were an investor in this company and it listed at $31, how peeved would you be that it didn't price higher?
Bullish for IPOs, bullish for stable coins, bullish for crypto. Seems like a big win
I am blown away by the results. For folks who don't recall, it was initially looking at a $24 to $26 per share range, Jason. That got bumped up to $27, $28, went out at $31 and then it opened at $69, closed yesterday at $83 per share and then today it closed at $107.70.
the rumor the reporting is that open ai is going to buy windsurf around 3 billion a pretty big check we're kind of waiting for that news to drop to be honest i'm kind of confused why that deal hasn't wrapped up
Apple's done what is the smart thing. They donated to the inauguration fund. They announced more investments in the U.S. They tried to get ahead of Trump, if you will.
We've talked a lot on the show about Apple moving manufacturing out of China, Jason, into India, into places like Vietnam, part of the China plus one, China plus two strategy. That's a lot of work. Apple, just after years of effort, is now producing its top-end phones in India. The chance that they can move that production to the U.S. is very slim.
open ai is going to buy johnny ive's company love from for 6.5 billion dollars this is an all-stock transaction... he was working on some hardware for the ai game and what does open ai do well some of the book is the most popular models out there so put the two together and you could see a very interesting hardware device from open ai just given how far apple has dropped the ball on hardware ai integration compared to just for example this week google and android this is actually very exciting t
Gone are the days when Google was warehousing talent. Today, people don't want talent.
I was shocked at just how many of these cuts in Washington state from Microsoft in this riff were software engineers, because what does Microsoft make? They make frickin software, you know? It strikes me as a very different era in tech.
In their most recent quarter, 25.8 billion dollars worth of net income, Jason, up 18% year over year. That's nearly 10 billion dollars a month in profit and apparently not enough.
i doubt they can actually take more of a loss here
the information reported that meta had actually reached out to alphabet and microsoft should i get them to subsidize the money they were putting into llama
i think it just goes to show that one meta needs an ai business model jason but also too that it's not all going to pool in nvidia's pockets long term
at the absolute peak of all the cloud companies that bessemer tracks palantir is at 59.3x the next highest is 21.3 so even though it has come down it's still incredibly expensive
i want to talk just for a minute about core weave filing to go public jason we've been talking about neo clouds these gpu hyperscalers that are buying up you know billions of dollars worth of gear
And then finally, Harvey. It's the only vertical AI company on the list, but I was going back through a list of them, and Harvey said that it had tripled ARR in, like, the first couple quarters of this year. So to me, that is indicative of a company that has managed to take a new technology to an old vertical and crack the ARR code.
My winner is Perplexity.
This is an AI search engine that we have all heard of, we have all used. It raised tons of money. It grew quickly. It got embroiled in controversies about plagiarism and publishing and rights. It has been on everyone's lips. It has been, I think, a company that's been impossible to ignore.
It's slightly different than that. And that that's the same headline that I saw. And then I went and I actually read the Databricks announcement. Here's the thing, Justin, the language gets a little weird. So Databricks series J, they are going to raise 10 billion. J Cal, here we go. J as in J curve. I mean, you know, they've completed $8.6 billion of this to date. So they've gotten 86% of the $10 billion. They will get the other 1.4. I'll explain why in a second. What tripped me out though, was
and then later on uber invested in the company as an extension of that series see
we've estimated that Waymo cars on the low end would cost 5.5 trillion. That's 80,000 per car or 75,000 per car. Um, and then Waymo on the higher end, I think is 120,000 is what I was told.
First up, Harvey AI. We talked about earlier how AI has seen a lot of promise in the developer space. Well, also in the legal space. What does a lot of writing and ingesting the documents? The legal profession. Ergo, AI is going to be a hot fit. Harvey AI reached 10 million ARR, I think it was last December. Don't know how big it is today. But a lot of investors at least can be very, very excited about what it is building. So I presume it's in quick growth this year as well.
But Jason, the biggest story is whiz and Google are not going to get married. No 23 billion dollar deal, no happy VCs.
we also have news about stub hubs ipo getting pushed back
Microsoft has been one of the most valuable companies off and on for my entire life. So thinking about just value preservation clearly stands the test of time, enterprise and consumer, huge businesses, AW, sorry, Azure, open AI. That's an easy one.
my first thought was it seems a little bit silly, but then when I was just thinking about the economic impact, I can kind of see the point. And here's my argument and tell me if this is too, too woke or not. But if you said everyone who walks wants to take scenic route, or I think they also said the nicest route was the initial like point of the tweet. So nicest scenic people are going to go to where there's the most expensive, best kept parts of town and not go through parts of town that can pr
The next tweet was, yeah, we didn't do it because of equity, right. And so because of its global scale, this is Casey again, who we will take in good faith is a Googler, or was a Googler because of its global scale, even a small shift in maps routing from a seemingly innocuous, and frankly, very useful feature could create a reinforcing feedback loop with spatial inequity, inequality, spatial inequality.
Meta, AWS, and Google. I think those are your top five folks.
you can be a scamp you can be a rogue you can skirt the rules when you are small not famous and not rich as hell as open ai is what were they thinking this of course they were going to get in trouble for this
there have been a couple of exits from open ai including on their post super alignment team people thinking about privacy and safety we'll get to that in a second but when one of the people exited vox wrote a piece describing essentially an agreement inside their exit deals with their former employees that if there was any disparagement ever they could get their vested equity clawed back
And I'm not surprised because whenever I use Uber eats, I somehow managed to pay an extra $9 in associated fees on top of delivery and then tip. And I know that that is why Uber is making so much money. So you are welcome, Jason, for all of my custom. And, uh, I'm just really happy to see the amount of implied consumer demand here implies a healthy American consumer, healthy global consumer. So not a lot of negatives, frankly, just feels pretty good.
And so I almost read it and was like, nothing here is blowing my mind because the company is just healthy. Now there's no longer like a, Ooh, what's going to happen. It's just, yes, there it goes.
the funny thing about this quarter is it was good, but it was boring because it was another quarter of solid growth, good cashflow generation. Um, you know, the net income number feels very solid for the company is.
I think Dara's done a great job as Uber CEO to take a company with a lot of potential and a lot of good bones and turn it into a cashflow generating machine. So to me, the question mark over Uber's viability has been answered very clearly in the last year.
I read that blog post by Coinbase, and it was bad. It was one of their worst pieces of literature. I've read a lot of Coinbase stuff over the years. I've talked to Brian once or twice and covered the company through their direct listing and so forth. You could tell by the tone of that piece that they're worried, and I think they should be. Coinbase, I actually view as a relatively good actor in the crypto space compared to everyone else. I don't think they should even be that concerned, except f
I think it's much harder this year, a question about this, going back to my favorite topics, I'm boring is gross margins and how high quality this revenue is because 7.4 billion at 40%, uh, is not nearly as good as 7.4 billion at 75%. And no one's given me hard numbers on their revenue quality. So I I'm curious, um, and it's not a cheap business to run. They've hired all the smart people they can get their hands on, which is expensive.
everyone knows that it's hot. Everyone knows that it's huge. Everyone knows that it's doing well. I just want to know if that's actually true. And so this IPO filing is the one that's going to really, I think, deobfuscate the business.
I think it's manufacturing and sourcing a lot. Um, and I think Tesla has shown that with scale, they will improve. I mean, that's the concept of operating leverage that VCs like y'all love to see in businesses that their profitability increases as their revenue scales.
I thought when they moved to the cheaper cars, they were going to have, ah, so, um, you buy a Model S, you pay a lot of money for it. You buy a Model X, you're paying a lot, a lot of money for it. Generally speaking, more expensive items have higher gross margins. They're kind of higher quality revenue. And so I thought when Tesla moved to more Model 3s, their revenue quality would go down as their volume went up. Um, but if you actually take a look at the numbers, if I recall, uh, when I read t
It's now just $600 million more in the last quarter than than YouTube. So YouTube is about to kind of surpass this critical old piece of of Google revenue. But the the YouTube gains were very impressive.
Well, the, the growth of, of usage of these public clouds is crazy. So, uh, Google Cloud grew, I think 54% year over year in Q2. Azure was 51%. So very, very close there. I think AWS was, I couldn't find the number and I was just looking for it. I think it was 37%. But I mean, think about how much total spend we're talking about going to the public cloud just over the last 12 months in Q2. I mean, it's, it's billions and billions of dollars and, uh, you know, thank you VCs for financing all the
But I'm curious what you made of the Google Cloud changes because revenue is a good loss is declined. I was pretty bullish about Google Cloud.
certainly apples pursuing the highest quality goods to the lowest possible price to pursue margin because that's what they're set up to do there's up to maximize cash flow
I look at this and I'm like there's no way this could happen