David Friedberg

I think I can confidently say it's probably the biggest day of discovery in human history with the amount of knowledge that was revealed >> in math history or human history.

companies like a Cognition or a Cursor or something that can grow unbelievably quickly

Cursor got sold for $60 billion. Andrew Wang's company, the one Scali, I got bought for $10, $11 billion. ... 14, 15. I mean, these are extraordinary. And if this company, what is it called? Instinct is the new. Instinct in town. Instinct in town.

Grok for government via Starshield is from, obviously, Grok and SpaceX AI. Faster ops analysis, supply chain and acquisition work, quote unquote, playbooks and adaptive reasoning models. Obviously, that might be for maybe some more forward-looking.

I, I, I told the founder, um, of, uh, hugging face publicly, like this is the greatest side quest ever

thanks to our partners over at google they are doing a great job with gemini i have to say i'm using gemini all the time you know they have code review and all this great stuff the api is fantastic i have to say you there was like two or three things that i had on my vacation that worked really well google local and google maps and gemini have all been tied together now so i was in france i was like i'm here right now i need the best croissant the best pan on chocolate the best hot chocolate wha

watching some of the large companies now embrace GLM five, two and Zuckerberg, which we'll get to in a moment, releasing really great open source models.

What Google has is probably one of the greatest install enterprise bases in the world for compute. They have the most enterprise customers, they have the most consumers, and in both cases, they don't necessarily need to have the best model to make an incredible business.

What Google has is probably one of the greatest install enterprise bases in the world for compute. They have the most enterprise customers, they have the most consumers, and in both cases, they don't necessarily need to have the best model to make an incredible business. They can be model agnostic, they can work with Anthropic, they can work with OpenAI, they can work with SpaceX. They have a significant ownership stake in SpaceX and in Anthropic, and they can work with all the open weights mode

From a technical standpoint the architecture is genuinely differentiated, and that's what gives them durability. I think the criticism about margins misses the efficiency gains.

this is going to lower the prices on it

I think a really interesting way for you to expand this would be to do say skiing or biking or you know other kayaking whatever it happens to be and let people claim the water the mountain etc and then you could also do it based on I like not doing speed because again speed equals death in a lot of these pursuits like skiing but you could do completeness and so you know when I you ski a certain mountain let's say there's 50 runs how many of the runs and this might include some element of speed b

you're taking the competitive spirit you're taking the slot machine nature of apps and smartphones and you're using it for good fantastic

You know who's the best company at not doing this, Turner? Is Apple. Every time Apple does their WWDC or they launch a couple of new apps, they're like, look, we have Notepad. And nobody who's using Evernote would say Notepad is an Evernote killer. It was like, they make Notepad from mom and dad, your cousin, your brother. It's the most basic thing ever. But if you look at Notepad today, 10 years in,

Great acquisition for everybody.

Yeah, it became a commodity really quick.

Most AI devices are kind of chuggy. It's like, uh, an AI device. If, uh, Apple or Braun or BMW designed it, it's pretty, pretty, pretty beautiful.

today, Meta dropped their latest model and their new family. Shout out to them for pulling that off. And it looks pretty good compared to everything that came before Mythos, but it's not now state of the art.

What I will say though, about their decisions and product terms is that I think product market fit is the ultimate arbiter of entrepreneur success. And clearly no one has more PMF than Anthropic today.

I did something in 90 minutes. I was telling the guys about, replaced the whole software stack and like a whole bunch of workload, 90 minutes on Claude ran this agentic system, built the whole thing, deployed it.

people were like, you're going to lose your money on that one. They said that about Uber too. It's really interesting. The ideas that, and they said that about Calm, like the meditation app. Some of the greatest successes are also the weirdest non-consensus, right? So if you find yourself with 80% or 90% of people thinking your idea is dumb, it might be dumb. That's a possibility. I'm not saying that it's brilliant, but it could also be because it's so brilliant that people just are not thinking

it's sort of like saying, oh, yeah, you know, if I were going to compete against UPS, all I need is a brown truck. You know, it's kind of obvious. Oh, actually, UPS is like a big, complicated logistics network. And same goes here. It's just that that logistics network needs to be fundamentally rethought, redesigned around autonomy. And so this is ultimately what Zipline's building. It's building an entirely new kind of logistics network with autonomy and AI and robotics at its core.

it's made a lot more sense for Zipline to be fully vertically integrated so we can own every single part of the problem and make sure that every part of the solution is ultimately designed for this next generation way of delivering.

It's amazing how quickly people go from like science fiction to completely normal, if not like entitled, you know, they're like, yeah, of course we have this.

I was visiting a grandma a few weeks ago who has ordered 350 times from Zipline in the last year.

we're now delivering to public areas. So it's not just delivering to people's homes. Like you can be at a little league game and you can be like, oh, you know what? I want to get like cupcakes for the kids because we won. And people will just like place the order. And five minutes later, the product is being delivered to the GPS coordinates of your phone.

we're using something we call a droid. So the main aircraft stays 100 meters in the air, 300 feet up, so football field. And then we're using a droid secondary robot that can control its position in X and Y axis to deliver hyper accurately to any GPS coordinates.

when uber finally came to tokyo many people had heard of it before right so it's easier each city became easier

I too had Alphabet and Google. We were sitting here a year ago. Everybody thought they would absolutely get killed by ChatGPT and now we're having a discussion. Hey, ChatGPT is probably going to get killed by Google. Go Google Cloud, right?

Alphabet went from look into how crazy the year was for Alphabet from 2 trillion market cap to 4 trillion market cap this year. That's 170 billion gain, 10 billion market cap gain every day. They added 10 billion of value every day for the entire year. The pivot in AI, risk-taking, clouds growing 40%, YouTube's the number one media company in the world. It's all under one roof. I think they just crushed it, all cylinders, business of the earth.

YouTube's the number one media company in the world.

Your AI is only as good as the data it's learning from. Every huge leap we're seeing in AI development is based on refining better data sets. And guess who came up with the ideal solution for your company? That's right, my pals at Uber. Did you all know I was an early investor in Uber? Maybe you heard third or fourth. And I never talk about it, but it's true. And now Uber AI Solutions works with enterprises all over the world, helping them source, label, evaluate, and scale real world high quali

I'm actually very happy for him and his team to be taking orders as opposed to, yeah, what the last 10 years of suffering might be like.

it might be for him after 10 years of pushing a boulder up a hill, it might be really nice to start pushing him down the hill and just releasing the spring water down the hill.

I suspect he's going to crush it with this business.

I believe a lot of boom success is based on United pre-ordering some of these and paying for them.

This is the seminal blog post on the subject from his above the crowd. And he's got a new book coming out. That's spectacular. But how to miss by a mile and alternative look at Uber's potential market size. This is in 2014, this, uh, NYU Business School Professor Aswath, who's, I think, goes on CNBC a whole bunch, kind of respected, but he did his whole Uber is not worth 17 billion. And we kind of all laughed at this because he estimated the value of Uber at 5.9 billion. Now we, all the smart pe

And I think for your education one, it might be people who are being displaced by AI, realizing they need to provide more value to their, for their employment opportunities. So therefore they take professional development

I suspect he's going to crush it with this business.

It's incredibly low, but if it's low enough, you induce a market. And now people are like, Hey, I'm going to build a product because this is so cheap and so good, which is the inducing of a market. That's beyond product market fit. That's like gravity, you know, like, I don't want to say a black hole because that's got a negative connotation to it. Maybe it's a white hole where you create. Yeah, exactly. But you just to be able to pull people into something that the product is so good, they come

the fund that did the first round in Databricks is going to be in that plus category

he did his whole Uber is not worth 17 billion. And we kind of all laughed at this because he estimated the value of Uber at 5.9 billion. Now we, all the smart people who weren't in an Ivy League school or whatever, in the ivory tower teaching the course, we saw it on the inside. And here is where he basically guesses here that, you know, he would settle on 10% of the hundred billion dollar market for Lincoln town cars, as we talked about.

And I think for your education one, it might be people who are being displaced by AI, realizing they need to provide more value to their, for their employment opportunities. So therefore they take professional development

Brian was kind of grinding his teeth a little bit on the valuation I saw there. It was competitive, but that's what great founders do. They create a marketplace and then they wind up picking the investor they want anyway. So Brian probably gave him a term sheet. He created a marketplace. He got Brian to come up a little bit. Brian, you know, has to grind his teeth a little bit. But to David's point, we've never seen startups break the, you know, triple, triple, double, double, uh, SaaS revenue r

in evaluating this type of deal, it's got a lot of the things we look for at our fund. Number one, you have a serial founder, which is great. I'm assuming that some members of his previous team, Brian joined him for this adventure, taking a guess. That's absolutely right. That would be the, a team that has worked together before. So those are two of the factors we look for.

I'm sure after this announcement, 10 people called them and said, how do we get on the list? And so that's just going to be so nice for the founder.

I suspect he's going to crush it with this business.

Blake's very smart and very dogged.

I believe a lot of boom success is based on United pre-ordering some of these and paying for them.

But how to miss by a mile and alternative look at Uber's potential market size. This is in 2014, this, uh, NYU Business School Professor Aswath, who's, I think, goes on CNBC a whole bunch, kind of respected, but he did his whole Uber is not worth 17 billion. And we kind of all laughed at this because he estimated the value of Uber at 5.9 billion. Now we, all the smart people who weren't in an Ivy League school or whatever, in the ivory tower teaching the course, we saw it on the inside. And here

in evaluating this type of deal, it's got a lot of the things we look for at our fund. Number one, you have a serial founder, which is great. I'm assuming that some members of his previous team, Brian joined him for this adventure, taking a guess. That's absolutely right. That would be the, a team that has worked together before. So those are two of the factors we look for. Third, this is big and ambitious, right? Like the total addressable market is anybody who wants to learn that's everybody,

as time goes on and you think about the efficiency of solar panels, how much they've changed in 15 years, efficiency of batteries, how much they've changed, and then autonomy and chip technology and AI. These things are going to be able to fly extremely high without pilots, without oxygen, without a bathroom, without safety concerns. You can just fly these things, you know, 50,000, 60,000 feet where there's less atmosphere and they could be real game changers and they could be flying all the tim

Oh, that's brilliant. Disney, when I am in charge, is going to buy the movie theaters or buy out the movie theaters.

Disney now has a clear path. Disney should buy the movie theaters. Disney. Anybody who owns Disney Plus should be able to go for $1 per seat to any Disney film.

This is the thing, right? This is the idea that the prediction markets are so powerful is that the sharps, the people that have more information than the average person, can essentially tell the world what they think is going to happen.

I think they're going to let it fly.

AMC is worth $1.2 billion. They're the largest U.S. chain by screens. And Disney's worth about $190 billion, Jason. So this would actually be a tiny deal that would be very easy to afford.

Dome, a unified API for prediction markets, great idea. They're going to need to have, if the information is public, they're going to be able to not scrape it but they'll be able to collect it but they're going to need probably permission from these markets if they want to have API access but a lot of times small ideas, things start as small ideas and it's a wedge and it opens up into something bigger. So I kind of like the idea actually. They're skating to where the puck is going.

This would change the dynamics of everything. And then this would make Disney Plus catch up and then exceed Netflix.

Now we move over to Google. Infrastructure is taken care of and fundraising is taken care of. It's called profits. So that team over there now has but one thing to focus on. The output of their image and the output of their language models, which is spectacular.

So it's not that egregious.

That'd be like saying, oh yeah, that Corvette I'm talking about. You know what? We change the oil and we change the filters on it and we maintain the tires and we rotate the tires. So we think it can get another 20% of life out of it.

we had this amazing outcome, series of outcomes at a hollow. And it was a research project for several years. We put close to $40 million into this project before these results started to come in. And I'm like, holy sh**, this is the game-changing business of my career. This is the power law. And that's when I made the decision, I'm going to go all in on this and I'm going to run it as CEO.

Burry's point is incorrect on Twitter. He said the idea of a useful life for depreciation being longer because chips for more than three to four years ago are fully booked confuses physical utilization with value creation. That is incorrect. There is value creation because they are generating revenue from those chips this year, six years later. So there is, in fact, a useful life for that chip that has extended into year six. ... So it's not like they're cooking the books and recognizing some ma

Microsoft investing 5 billion after just settling their open AI deal I worked out that they're going to go public and they have certain ownership and now this drops Microsoft investing 5 billion Anthropic will use 30 billion worth of Azure compute potentially so that's pretty amazing

they're very much don't want to compete on an application level with their customers they want to be a neutral third party although they do have a coding product I think they're not going to do what open AI is going to do which is try to you know invest in every single space

Microsoft investing 5 billion after just settling their open AI deal ... now this drops Microsoft investing 5 billion Anthropic will use 30 billion worth of Azure compute potentially so that's pretty amazing ... these companies want each other to succeed so I don't think they're going to be so hard nosed about individual contractual things that they're going to cause a ruckus like Microsoft doesn't want Anthropic to look weak nor does NVIDIA want Microsoft to look like it made a bad deal they wa

with them it just seemed like Google is going to run away with it for this year and they also have this massive advantage with their profit machine and the number of searches growing they can build out their CapEx yep off of profits and have from browsers gmail youtube I mean think about their data advantage gosh what is and have they come out with an agentic chrome browser yet has there been any rumor about them releasing an agentic chrome browser I

got rave reviews from some leaders who actually use it yeah at their major company so Aaron Levy likes it Stripe boys like it that's pretty good endorsement that they're seeing a difference

So, you can look at those two, and you can see that they have discipline. I don't think they want to chase the average return. No.

In the Series A, they do join the board. And that gives them two swings at bat. The seed fund can just make these 500K to $3 million checks. They can put 40 of those investments maybe into the $200 million fund for about $5 million on average.

So, you can look at those two, and you can see that they have discipline. I don't think they want to chase the average return. No.

In the Series A, they do join the board. And that gives them two swings at bat. The seed fund can just make these 500K to $3 million checks. They can put 40 of those investments maybe into the $200 million fund for about $5 million on average.

It's a, I guess this is all the cameras on the car. Yeah. The new Tesla hardware stack is eight cars. And this looks incredibly real. If you showed this to a hundred people, a hundred people would say that's real. So they now have the ability to build situations for the car to navigate. And then test it over and over and over again, which is extraordinary because what are the chances that like, you know, a deer comes running out into the street in this or a dog, you know, it's like to capture th

So, you can look at those two, and you can see that they have discipline. I don't think they want to chase the average return.

In the Series A, they do join the board. And that gives them two swings at bat. The seed fund can just make these 500K to $3 million checks. They can put 40 of those investments maybe into the $200 million fund for about $5 million on average.

They'll be with Grab in Malaysia and Singapore. They'll be with DD in China. They'll be with everybody.

Go check out Tonebase. It's a really great company, but I saw in their update, BFCM. So that's the time to really get a lot of sales in. So they prepare for this great rush, which is a great thing for startups to do.

So, you can look at those two, and you can see that they have discipline. I don't think they want to chase the average return. No.

They'll be with Grab in Malaysia and Singapore. They'll be with DD in China. They'll be with everybody.

WeRide and Uber have launched their robo-taxi in Riyadh.

Yeah, Wave is probably under-reported on. They have tests going on in UK, which is where I think they're based.

Some of the greats, you can do interactive stuff. Go check out Tonebase. It's a really great company, but I saw in their update, BFCM. So that's the time to really get a lot of sales in. So they prepare for this great rush, which is a great thing for startups to do.

So, you can look at those two, and you can see that they have discipline. I don't think they want to chase the average return. No.

Wave is probably under-reported on. They have tests going on in UK, which is where I think they're based.

So, you can look at those two, and you can see that they have discipline. I don't think they want to chase the average return.

Tesla is training on synthetic data in its FSD regime. This is a video that Tesla shared on X recently, Jason, you wanted to take a look at it. So here it is. And we'll talk about it on the other side. ... And this looks incredibly real. If you showed this to a hundred people, a hundred people would say that's real. So they now have the ability to build situations for the car to navigate. And then test it over and over and over again, which is extraordinary because what are the chances that like

So, you can look at those two, and you can see that they have discipline.

Wave is probably under-reported on. They have tests going on in UK, which is where I think they're based.

Some of the greats, you can do interactive stuff. Go check out Tonebase. It's a really great company.

only because we're building this infrastructure out at such a significant pace and utilization is going up and we're still trying to keep up with uh to our first story the ai bubble all of this infrastructure being built out if it happens every two years i think it's kind of in the bucket of acceptable if you look at energy in california i would lose my energy in the peninsula gosh and you know san mateo palo alto you'd lose your electricity five times a year six times a year so i'm more worried

seems acceptable i'll be totally honest like really you were okay yeah only because we're building this infrastructure out at such a significant pace and utilization is going up and we're still trying to keep up with uh to our first story the ai bubble all of this infrastructure being built out if it happens every two years i think it's kind of in the bucket of acceptable if you look at energy in california i would lose my energy in the peninsula gosh and you know san mateo palo alto you'd lose

only because we're building out this infrastructure at such a significant pace and utilization is going up and we're still trying to keep up with uh to our first story the ai bubble all of this infrastructure being built out if it happens every two years i think it's kind of in the bucket of acceptable

hosting their code for others to you hosting it yeah so you know just like wordpress like you could literally take the wordpress code put up a server and do all that but if you want the latest version you want faster servers you want somebody doing the security and the operations and upgrading it and installing the patches you just go with the hosted version and the cost of you uh managing your own reflection ai servers uh if you're doing something small to mid-size is greater than having the re

It's pretty cold in space, as you know. And so you don't have the issue with having to cool down these. You won't have the same cooling issues that you have here. So that's pretty interesting combination. The combination of more efficient solar and you don't need to cool it down could be a big win. I'm not sure when this happens, but there are a number of startups with crazy visions like this and they're worth keeping an eye on.

It's an exciting vision. I hope we live to see it.

Well, obviously, NVIDIA and AMD are in competition. And so it's fine if you have a ton of money, and you go out and you start buying from two different suppliers. I wouldn't expect anything else, right? You want to have a competitive marketplace. So that makes total sense, right? You don't want all your eggs in one basket if you are OpenAI.

Or maybe superintelligence, you know, takes off and we have so many jobs to run to cure cancer,

So if, when I run Disney corporation, I'm going to give the ability for kids and their parents to write a Grogu bedtime adventure and publish it to the Disney plus site for other users to see, and then it would be a leaderboard of the best Grogu stories. And, you know, Disney would vet them and you have to be a paid user.

I said, here's how it would work with the New York Times and chat GPT or Grok and Disney, whoever you authenticate with your Disney plus at chat GPT or vice versa. And then it unlocks these features. So if you're at the chat GPT website, you're at the Grok website or the Claude website, it says connect your New York Times account, connect your Disney plus, connect your Netflix. When you do that, all of a sudden those characters light up, you click on the Mandalorian and you, it gives you prompts

So the cost of capital for AI companies is very cheap right now. So it probably does not matter if they've raised hundreds of millions of dollars, if they lose an extra $1 or $2 million a month at this point in time. And then getting continued growth and having more users sign up for free and then funneling the free users into the paid product. And then, of course, I'm sure these browsers will have advertising built into them. The other thing that's interesting is these browsers are a backdoor f

And I said, here's how it would work with the New York Times and chat GPT or Grok and Disney, whoever you authenticate with your Disney plus at chat GPT or vice versa. And then it unlocks these features. So if you're at the chat GPT website, you're at the Grok website or the Claude website, it says connect your New York Times account, connect your Disney plus, connect your Netflix. When you do that, all of a sudden those characters light up, you click on the Mandalorian and you, it gives you pro

The other thing that's interesting is these browsers are a backdoor for training data. If Reddit and Hacker News and Tech Meme do not allow an LLM to scrape their content, right, or to otherwise produce it, well, I'm running a tool on my computer and I'm scraping the website. I'm opening the browser windows. So since it's my browser and my IP address and the Mac address of, you know, my computer, it's not their scrapers going and doing things in the world.

So getting continued growth and having more users sign up for free and then funneling the free users into the paid product. And then, of course, I'm sure these browsers will have advertising built into them.

here's how it would work with the New York Times and chat GPT or Grok and Disney, whoever you authenticate with your Disney plus at chat GPT or vice versa. And then it unlocks these features. ... And can you imagine how much money this make and how sticky it would make your app

So the cost of capital for AI companies is very cheap right now. So it probably does not matter if they've raised hundreds of millions of dollars, if they lose an extra $1 or $2 million a month at this point in time. ... So getting continued growth and having more users sign up for free and then funneling the free users into the paid product. And then, of course, I'm sure these browsers will have advertising built into them. The other thing that's interesting is these browsers are a backdoor for

here's how it would work with the New York Times and chat GPT or Grok and Disney, whoever you authenticate with your Disney plus at chat GPT or vice versa. And then it unlocks these features.

So getting continued growth and having more users sign up for free and then funneling the free users into the paid product. And then, of course, I'm sure these browsers will have advertising built into them. The other thing that's interesting is these browsers are a backdoor for training data. If Reddit and Hacker News and Tech Meme do not allow an LLM to scrape their content, right, or to otherwise produce it, well, I'm running a tool on my computer and I'm scraping the website. I'm opening the

if you are selling chat GPT subscriptions... I said, here's how it would work with the New York Times and chat GPT or Grok and Disney, whoever you authenticate with your Disney plus at chat GPT or vice versa. And then it unlocks these features. So if you're at the chat GPT website, you're at the Grok website or the Claude website, it says connect your New York Times account, connect your Disney plus, connect your Netflix. When you do that, all of a sudden those characters light up, you click on

So the cost of capital for AI companies is very cheap right now. So it probably does not matter if they've raised hundreds of millions of dollars, if they lose an extra $1 or $2 million a month at this point in time. ... So getting continued growth and having more users sign up for free and then funneling the free users into the paid product. And then, of course, I'm sure these browsers will have advertising built into them. The other thing that's interesting is these browsers are a backdoor for

here's how it would work with the New York Times and chat GPT or Grok and Disney, whoever you authenticate with your Disney plus at chat GPT or vice versa. And then it unlocks these features. So if you're at the chat GPT website, you're at the Grok website or the Claude website, it says connect your New York Times account, connect your Disney plus, connect your Netflix. When you do that, all of a sudden those characters light up

And you've been very cynical about this category, let's be honest. Sure. You felt it wasn't good at jokes. It wasn't good at that. So this is an honest assessment from you that it's crossing this chasm into... Absolutely. Contributing creatively.

So getting continued growth and having more users sign up for free and then funneling the free users into the paid product. And then, of course, I'm sure these browsers will have advertising built into them. The other thing that's interesting is these browsers are a backdoor for training data.

So if you're at the chat GPT website, you're at the Grok website or the Claude website, it says connect your New York Times account, connect your Disney plus, connect your Netflix. When you do that, all of a sudden those characters light up, you click on the Mandalorian and you, it gives you prompts already.

So I think the other thing that's interesting is these browsers are a backdoor for training data. If Reddit and Hacker News and Tech Meme do not allow an LLM to scrape their content, right, or to otherwise produce it, well, I'm running a tool on my computer and I'm scraping the website. I'm opening the browser windows. So since it's my browser and my IP address and the Mac address of, you know, my computer, it's not their scrapers going and doing things in the world.

if you are selling chat GPT subscriptions, there's two ways to go about this. ... if you're at the chat GPT website, you're at the Grok website or the Claude website, it says connect your New York Times account, connect your Disney plus, connect your Netflix. When you do that, all of a sudden those characters light up, you click on the Mandalorian and you, it gives you prompts already.

So getting continued growth and having more users sign up for free and then funneling the free users into the paid product. And then, of course, I'm sure these browsers will have advertising built into them. The other thing that's interesting is these browsers are a backdoor for training data.

So getting continued growth and having more users sign up for free and then funneling the free users into the paid product. And then, of course, I'm sure these browsers will have advertising built into them. The other thing that's interesting is these browsers are a backdoor for training data. If Reddit and Hacker News and Tech Meme do not allow an LLM to scrape their content, right, or to otherwise produce it, well, I'm running a tool on my computer and I'm scraping the website. I'm opening the

I think this is the future of it. If you are selling chat GPT subscriptions, there's two ways to go about this. ... So it can go both ways, Alex. You see what I'm saying? This is why I need to be a studio head. I will be running the Disney corporation. And, uh, this will be one of the first things I do.

And you've been very cynical about this category, let's be honest. Sure. You felt it wasn't good at jokes. It wasn't good at that. So this is an honest assessment from you that it's crossing this chasm into... Absolutely. Contributing creatively.

The other thing that's interesting is these browsers are a backdoor for training data. If Reddit and Hacker News and Tech Meme do not allow an LLM to scrape their content, right, or to otherwise produce it, well, I'm running a tool on my computer and I'm scraping the website. I'm opening the browser windows. So since it's my browser and my IP address and the Mac address of, you know, my computer, it's not their scrapers going and doing things in the world.

So getting continued growth and having more users sign up for free and then funneling the free users into the paid product. And then, of course, I'm sure these browsers will have advertising built into them.

And can you imagine how much money this would make and how sticky it would make your app if you had a hundred photos in there of your kids doing Jedi stuff or Marvel stuff, whatever it is. Like now you unsubscribe and you lose that. No, and your kids are going to want to keep doing it. So this is the future of entertainment.

I think this is the future of it. If you are selling chat GPT subscriptions, there's two ways to go about this. ... I showed it, I think on the show, and I did it during my Nostracanis keynote. ... you're on the New York Times, you're authenticate with chat GPT. And now you have a chat GPT box. And you say, give me the earliest mentions of Putin. ... So it can go both ways, Alex. You see what I'm saying? This is why I need to be a studio head. I will be running the Disney corporation. And, uh, t

And you've been very cynical about this category, let's be honest. Sure. You felt it wasn't good at jokes. It wasn't good at that. So this is an honest assessment from you that it's crossing this chasm into... Absolutely. Contributing creatively.

The other thing that's interesting is these browsers are a backdoor for training data. If Reddit and Hacker News and Tech Meme do not allow an LLM to scrape their content, right, or to otherwise produce it, well, I'm running a tool on my computer and I'm scraping the website. I'm opening the browser windows. So since it's my browser and my IP address and the Mac address of, you know, my computer, it's not their scrapers going and doing things in the world.

So the cost of capital for AI companies is very cheap right now. So it probably does not matter if they've raised hundreds of millions of dollars, if they lose an extra $1 or $2 million a month at this point in time. So getting continued growth and having more users sign up for free and then funneling the free users into the paid product. And then, of course, I'm sure these browsers will have advertising built into them.

if you're at the chat GPT website, you're at the Grok website or the Claude website, it says connect your New York Times account, connect your Disney plus, connect your Netflix. When you do that, all of a sudden those characters light up, you click on the Mandalorian and you, it gives you prompts already.

So the cost of capital for AI companies is so cheap right now that it probably doesn't matter if they've raised hundreds of millions of dollars, if they lose an extra $1 or $2 million a month at this point in time. Getting continued growth and having more users sign up for free and then funneling the free users into the paid product. And then, of course, I'm sure these browsers will have advertising built into them. The other thing that's interesting is these browsers are a backdoor for training

patients with these new platforms like Function, like Superpower, like Whoop, you can just take control of it.

And in the Whoop app, they have labs. So they're going to be adding that product. And this is the start of, you know, user-led healthcare.

I think Apple will show a competing product, not available for purchase, but a competing product to this, which is what I'll say is glasses that connect to your phone, not a big rig.

I think that the TikTok deal and Ellison's role in TikTok is going to be instrumental in realizing potential future distribution.

I mean, what do you do when you're worth a couple hundred billion dollars and you're 81 years old and you're thinking about what legacy you want to leave behind, except to perhaps empower your kid to build the largest, most influential media company in history? And I think that's the story that's unfolding in front of us. Not to mention, I think that the TikTok deal and Ellison's role in TikTok is going to be instrumental in realizing potential future distribution.

Optimus is, I think, going to be the greatest product in the history of humanity.

Because it seems like you're looking backwards and China's looking forward.

I'm one of, you know, an early investor when it was public. I had IPO shares, literally, and I own the first Model S and I own the 16th Roadster. I'm as all in as you could get in Tesla. I have great exposure to it. I want to see everybody win.

I think the simplest way to make the bull case is if you look at the CAGR on their Maus and the conversion from Maus to DAOs, you essentially take a small minor percentage of the Facebook or Google terminal ARPU and apply it to some number of Maus DAOs three or four years from now. So if I had to guess, if you take four or 500 million Maus DAO growing at, I'm guessing, let's just be conservative. By the way, it's 700 million weekly active users, right? So then I would probably put that at like 5

I appreciate BS. There's a lot going on. We're very busy. I actually had a really cool test tube here that we had a customer visit today. I'll go find it. The world's first true potato seed. And we are ramping up production. A lot going on. It's pretty exciting.

make hay while the sun shines

I think from a product experience point of view, this was actually a pretty big upgrade for chat GPT. And it'll give them a real advantage as people start to access it.

alpha fold which was deep minds uh product that was able to computationally predict protein structures simply from knowing the sequences of those proteins and that was a true breakthrough it it built upon several decades of experimental discovery uh there was something called the protein data bank that that was trained on and so it was really an amazing tribute to 40 50 years of molecular biology and then some amazing new capabilities of ai models and demis hasabis and john jumper won the nobel

Google could not have been built at any other time in history.

I think that Tesla probably has the, it is the best place to invest if you want to have a shot at a massive new industry. So they've got a baseline business in, in obviously the automobiles. But I think this humanoid robot opportunity is absolutely mind-blowingly ginormous. And I don't think that there's a better company on earth positioned to execute against this humanoid robotics opportunity than Tesla. So, you know, it's sort of like, I would call it a low probability, high upside, sort of ca

It might be that Zuckerberg is so ambitious that he will keep everybody employed and just make his AI the best one.

What Y Combinator has done is what Harvard has done. They've created incredible brands that people are willing to, um, pay for value or proceed value.

and then XAI right behind them in third place. So you put those three together. Now you're looking at 90, 90.

I wouldn't be surprised if in the next year or two, Sam Altman says, we now have an advertising product.

I think based on my firsthand knowledge, it's going to be either Gemini or open AI. I use this stuff every day and I know their release schedule.

Axon is a name you might not know, but it is a nearly $50 billion public company that's products include the Taser... and a new AI product called DraftOne that helps police officers with their drafting of police reports.

companies like Google, companies that are making application tools like cursor, they are building in a lot of these checks and a lot of these multi model layers that resolve to a better output than you would get if you had just a single shot, single model, do a run for you.

today they're putting about two and a half tons per acre of leftover potatoes on the ground in order to grow 25 tons of potato. And with our system, you can put less than 10 grams of little tiny seed to replace that two and a half tons of potato. And it cuts out all the chemistry that's used, all the fumigants, all of the fungicides, all of the insecticides that are sprayed, that are toxic on the environment, on the potatoes that end up in our food supply deals, those all would go away by just u

And then in many crops that we work in, we're making seed for the first time, many crops, people don't realize this are not farmed by planting seed in the ground. They're farmed vegetatively. So you actually chop up leftover potatoes and put them back in the ground in order to grow potatoes... And so our system actually allows us to make seed and potato.

At the end of the day, the work we're doing at Ohalo is just trying to improve the yield and the disease resistance and the drought resistance, climate adaptation of the plants, make them more sustainable.

You take the whole genome of all those plants, and based on data, you know, about how those plants look and perform. The software would predict the series of crosses to make the specific plant that they ended up with. And you would do it all like right away. That's extraordinary. Because you're basically able to read all that software and understand what combination of genes or one way to think about is what sub programs are you putting together to make the plant that's going to have this kind o

we moved to greenhouses, now we're moving to lab, what we're calling in vitro breeding, where we actually accelerate breeding even more by doing the whole cycle in a petri dish, for example. It's really incredible. So now the predictability and the speed has gone significantly higher.

we're using tools like whole genome sequencing and these AI models to make more complicated predictions, not just about the plants, but also the crosses I want to make between two plants and the combination of genes that the AI is saying will unlock this particular feature and doing it more quickly.

that's a lot of the technology that we've developed and work on at Ohalo is trying to accelerate both the predictive power and the turnaround cycles in plant breeding, which unlocks a much more tremendous improvement in yield across many, many different crops.

We use it in production at Ohala. So we actually use it to look at the plants in our breeding system. We feed the whole DNA sequence of every plant in, and that model will tell us, hey, these genes are dysfunctional or may have issues, and that gives us a score for that plant before we've even phenotyped that plant.

I'm doing kind of a full day away and we're going to go through actually systematizing how we are going to work with individuals in the organization to try and make the organization more AI first. What are we going to ask of people? How are we going to demand outputs from them?

I really like this idea of challenging people when they ask for headcount about why they can't use AI to do the things that they are asking for the individual to do. That I think needs to be built in culturally into organizations to help managers, help leaders, and even help individuals figure out, hey, wait a second, I never thought about using AI to solve this problem, like designing a greenhouse or, you know, designing a new lab layout or things like that.

every employee at the company came and we did a sit down, taught him how to use cursor and then said, pick a business problem that you're dealing with at work, whether you work in the lab or whether you work in the greenhouse or whether you work at a desk and come up with an app, a web app, and then you're going to create and deploy that web app by tonight.

It was so important when we had these breakthroughs. I said, we can't mess this up. I'm really committed to making sure this company succeeds. I have to make sure it reaches its potential. So I stepped in in November of 23 as the full-time CEO.

Ohalo is just a very special company that had these very important breakthroughs where we changed how plants can be used for plant breeding using CRISPR-type tools. So that's created a new system for plant breeding, unlocks tremendous yield potential, which is the key driver for agriculture, and unlocks the ability to make seed in crops where you can't make seed. And so the general kind of storyline is this becomes a huge game changer for the entire key of agriculture.

And this will have a very deep impact on the bottom line. Uh, if we can show the markets, Hey, we're doing more with less. We're growing 10% a year or whatever they're growing while cutting 600K salaries.

i'm going to take the other side of it i think it's like it is too clever in the same way the united states of america was too clever people are like what are you doing why do all these like states have these state rights and how are you going to divvy up rights between the states and you know it turns out like sometimes if you do things that are not efficient and then you gain some other other qualities like resilience or competition and so one of the great things about the united states is lik

But Perplexity seems pretty good at these, um, deals.

So I had found the unsubscribe button. And I found the Uber One area where it showed I'd save $1,600 on 87 Uber Eats orders and 154 rides. Now, that's what my savings were. So it looks like I'm saving five bucks on every ride and 10 bucks on every delivery.

You would invest in them. You would create the cursor venture arm of the company. Like there's all kinds of creative things you can do to just solidify your position. Cursor labs where you do like weird hackathons and you invest in companies.

TAM can expand two ways, horizontally, vertically. You get more users, you get more features.

it seems. I mean, they're a decade behind, but it's viable. It's nowhere near what SpaceX is doing,

Well, these things make you 20% better. I think we all know it's low double digits in terms of productivity might be 10 for some developers might be 30 or 40% might be different based on the project or the day of the week

having it stay in the lane and having it stop before a bicycle goes across it we we know it's going to do that 100 of the time so congratulations humanity tesla waymo everybody in between who's making self-driving technology people who are making breaking technology less people are going to die

xai is doing something interesting which is i think they get x's corpus which is a huge advantage so the huge advantage is what i was talking about on glenn back today the huge advantage is if you have a real-time data source giving you information and so whoever's got real-time data whether it's reddit or x or facebook they're going to have such a huge huge llm advantage

Okay. Even if you think it's a bit overhyped, AI is everywhere from self-driving cars, medicine, and just business efficiency, right? We're all using it all day long. And if it's not in your industry yet, it's obviously coming and it's coming fast. You need to get ahead of this giant wave of computing and innovation. But as you know, you're going to need a lot of compute power. You're going to need a lot of speed. So how are you going to compete without your costs spiraling out of control? Well,

And they're standing on the shoulders. I assume you would agree of SpaceX, which showed, you know, Hey, you can, you can have the government as a client and it will work out pretty well. And you can actually make things that kick ass that they didn't ask for that they will eventually buy from you. And all my friends who are SpaceX, venture capital, his investors, founder fund, et cetera, they're feeling pretty good about the investment now. So it's kind of a big unlock.

it's a boondoggle get it together guys it's ar it's all ar it's those um you know ray-band uh glasses they created what are they called again the um i forget the name of them but they look like ray-bans and they had the little camera in them and so you know actually looking at what consumers want to do take pictures of their kids feed their social media like that is the killer um use case for glasses right now and playing video games is not the killer use case and those glasses are becoming obta

when i had a board issue at founders fund and there were some board members that did not like my strategy they had issues with what i was doing with the company at climate corp at the time founders fund actually stepped up and protected me and they got the board the rest of the board together to protect me uh in a way that was like actually at a very kind of crucial moment for the for the business and as a result we had a massive exit within a year

meta would not be where it is right now facebook you know that well if they hadn't gotten instagram

i think it'll be more like salesforce or microsoft or google or amazon getting off the sidelines because they've looked at and said you know what the juice ain't worth the squeeze we might as well put our efforts and our capital into buying big hardware and building new products and services but if they think hey i got a chance of pulling this through i'm sitting on all this cash what if i hit another youtube and instagram

if they didn't get youtube it would be a completely different picture for that company right now

i think it'll be more like salesforce or microsoft or google or amazon getting off the sidelines because they looked at and said you know what the juice ain't worth the squeeze we might as well put our efforts and our capital into buying big hardware and building new products and services but if they think hey i got a chance of pulling this through i'm sitting on all this cash what if i hit another youtube and instagram

I do agree that core weave and Lambda and the other GPU clouds that are, you know, borrowing up to 11 billion, as the FT said are sending material money to NVIDIA. But NVIDIA is not underwriting the debt in question. So that's actually not a round tripping concern.

To be more specific, you don't want it to have feet.

And we can talk about why this is so important in this segment, but technically, the achievement of this skyscraper falling out of the sky and perfectly aligning itself to go into that chopstick catching device, it is an absolute marvel of human ingenuity. And the work and the effort that people put into this over several decades, it's just such an incredible feat.

We're going to go to Mars because of this

And, uh, I think this is the game changer. Yeah. That I've been waiting for. So. Yeah. Congratulations to the team over there and, you know, just using a one all the time and seeing it show its work of what it's doing has been extraordinary for me. I have been doing so many interesting, um,

And then I'm very excited about Oh, one I've been using chat GPT Oh, one version to the point at which it gives me like a warning about credits, you know, and says, Hey, you gotta take a pause. That's how often I'm using it. Uh, so it's really amazing.

I think he said he could have those cars being manufactured. He, he, he, it was interesting because he was like kind of 20 and I'll say 2026, but maybe 2027. He kind of hedged a little bit there, which kind of, and maybe that's why the stock went down a little bit because maybe people want everything yesterday. But the truth is you got to get this right. Right. And when you do, they have the ability to produce, I think they did 1.9 million cars last year. So he does have the ability to produce t

needs somebody to be in the back you know with the safety harness on taking the packages and when it gets to a donation jumping out ringing the bell putting the package taking the picture and leaving

I don't think that these big companies are bad just because they're big... there is a tremendous benefit to be gained from the R&D dollars that they put into things that move the whole industry forward.

the bull case would be that the moat in the business with respect to model performance and infrastructure gets extended with the large amount of capital that they're raising they aggressively deploy it they are very strategic and tactical with respect to how they deploy that infrastructure to continue to improve model performance and as a result continue to extend their advantage in both consumer and enterprise applications the api tools and so on that they offer and so they can maintain both ki

The world's most trusted driver.

he's, he's done a decent job, solid job. Profitable.

can you imagine spacex if, if Elon went to aerojet rocket dine for engines? Yeah. Like Merlin's is like, how many do you want all of them? Right. It would take them five years to decide whether they wanted to do it, let alone to go invent and move with their speed.

Satya Nadella, Sundar, Nikesh, Tim Cook, a great example. There are some really great leaders that have run organizations that are already scaled and then taken them to an order of magnitude or two orders of magnitude beyond where they were when they step in.

I do think that there's a lot of value unlock in YouTube. So if Google were to just generally spin out YouTube, that is probably a business that on its own would attract an investor base that might otherwise not want to get into the conglomerate. ... YouTube certainly seems like an unlock.

Being big can be very good in the sense that it can drive an ability to invest in innovation that is not possible without the scale and the significant cash flow that's being generated by being that big.

I do think that there's a lot of value unlock in YouTube. So if Google were to just generally spin out YouTube, that is probably a business that on its own would attract an investor base that might otherwise not want to get into the conglomerate. And you know, there's always this notion of what's called a conglomerate discount. When you put a lot of different businesses together, the businesses in aggregate get valued less than the individual parts would be valued on their own, because different

I'm obviously uh still a big shareholder at uber and believe in the company

The management in this company has not changed. The return profile on cash invested and cash returned has only improved since he put money in. They're generating more cash flow. They're offering more dividends. They're doing more stock buybacks.

with 80-90. It's been one of the joys of my career to actually start a company in the middle of what I think is the most important wave that I've ever seen professionally since social networking. And I jumped into the middle of that wave. And I kind of tried to ride the best wave I could there. I'm doing it here. But my honest takeaway, after being in this thing now for, you know, seven months intensely, and I'll be into it for as many years as it takes to build a successful company, is that AI

So, you know, what can I do to accelerate this cloud outcome, given the risks, the challenges, the slowdown with respect to the core consumer business, cloud and AI based tools really is where it's at. And so Google's asking this important strategic question, I would imagine, what can we do to accelerate outcomes in the cloud? And what can we do that is going to be big enough to matter? And what can we do that is going to pass antitrust muster, so we can actually get it through antitrust authori

Now, in the last year, if you kind of look at, or even if you look at the last quarter annualized, Google's generating currently about $60 billion a year in free cash flow as an overall organization, Alphabet is. And they have over 100 billion in cash.

Well, GCP in the last quarter did 10.3 billion in revenue, which is up from 8 billion in revenue the year before, in the same quarter the year before. And importantly, in this past quarter, they're running at a $1.2 billion operating profit out of GCP. So, you know, if you kind of think about what cloud margin should be over time, and kind of call it 20 to 30% margin, this cloud business could be generating 20 to $30 billion a year of free cash flow.

Google's cloud revenue growth has been absolutely stunning.

with our system not only can we make potatoes higher yielding and make them disease resistant what we also make is perfect seed so farmers can now plant seed in the ground which saves them about 20 of revenue takes out all the disease risk and makes things much more affordable and easier to manage for farmers so it creates entirely new seed industries

fertilizer use per pound produced should go down significantly

is it more expensive no it's it's actually cheaper so higher yield lower cost

we're going to be applying this boosted technology that we've discovered across nearly every major crop worldwide it'll both increase yield but it will also have a massive impact on the ability to actually deliver seed and help farmers and make food prices lower

the boosted offspring had 682 grams of potato the yield gain was insane

the data is ridiculous like the yield on some of these plants goes up by 50 to 100 percent or more just to give you a sense like in the corn seed industry breeders that are breeding corn are spending three billion dollars a year on breeding and they're getting maybe one and a half percent yield gain per year with our system we are seeing 50 to 100 percent jump in the size of these plants it's pretty incredible

if we could do that then all the genes from the mother and all the genes from the father would combine in the offspring rather than just half the genes from the mother and half the genes from the father and this would radically transform crop yield and improve the health and the size of the plants which could have a huge impact on agriculture because yield the size of the plants ultimately drives productivity per acre revenue for farmers cost of food calorie production sustainability etc

we're going to be announcing what ohalo has been developing for the past five years and has had an incredible breakthrough in which is basically a new technology in agriculture and we call it boosted breeding

i don't think it's actually taking away from uber lyft i think it's just taking away from people driving any service driving themselves and that's what's going to go away as car ownership is going to go away to car rentals

i think he'll just get as many rides as uber over some period of time but i don't think it's actually taking away from uber lyft i think it's just taking away from people driving any service driving themselves and that's what's going to go away as car ownership is going to go away to car rentals

what's happening is it's not taking away from uber or lyft in my mind it's taking away from car ownership and public transportation as well as the dog fight between the ride sharing services

adding to it millions of cars a year yes but 10 of those decide to put in the network which seems like a pretty good number to start yeah 10 of a couple million cars three four five hundred thousand cars very significant put them into the network they start doing you know five rides a day we

if you can do your part to basically get off these grids use somebody like palmetto or somebody else and just get solar tesla and be done with it

So while it might seem to be, in the short term, not wise to tell your competitors, like Google or Amazon, AWS, they're all watching the open computer project, they see some great innovation in maximizing storage or reducing heat, you know, in a server rack, and they take it, quote, unquote, steal it, and they leverage it. Well, that's a bummer, right? You just lost an advantage. But for every 10 things they give away, the concept here is they might get back 20, 30, 40, you know, a multiple of i

So they looked for tweets of people who on average were eight or ten year old accounts with decent follower accounts and two out of the first three citations. So I actually think they probably are using a really good algorithm. We'll ask Elon to do this.

Incredible. Yeah. Somewhere Atari, 80 year old Atari engineers are banging their heads on the wall.

this is a very natural fit into google's advertising business and taking all of the leads from advertising and better converting them and giving your sales team the tools they need to convert those leads into customers so it makes great strategic sense

my guess is by going to Google, they're probably going to get paid instead of having to pay someone else for the technology. Because Google will realize some benefit from getting users over to search results and seeing ads. So Google will probably benefit and pay them instead of them having to go pay someone for access to some technology that consumers might want access to.

google stock which currently is trading at just 17 times 2025 consensus earnings which is cheaper than all the other big tech companies by far and it's still growing core business is growing cloud is growing 20 search is growing 15 all these other businesses youtube's growing 20 a year it's a growth business that's very profitable and um it's trading at a very cheap discount so there's you know of the bull case is now's a great time to buy because it's so cheap and there could be this moment whe

10 trillion dollars potentially for people in the audience to understand what this context window

the compute build out is underway so this is going to continue for some time i think the real question that keeps getting asked is you know when do you really see the tides recede and what's what's there the compute build out is underway but are we seeing application and productivity gains associated with the capability of that compute some would say yes some would say no but you've got to build out the infrastructure if you're going to assume that there's going to be these productivity gains in

training is incredible. There's spatial video recording on it. So it looks like you're living through the experience that someone else had. So you can train someone how to do a difficult task. And rather than have a human go spend hours training a workforce, the workforce can be trained by the goggles in a way that you cannot do a two dimensional video today.

I'm reasonably optimistic about where this goes. It's definitely v1. I feel like it's the iPad days, where no one's really sure where the applications are. But yeah, enterprise applications, unbelievable makes total sense.

literally every aspect of this job will be massively improved and productivity will go up by 10x with these goggles.

What Apple solved is that you're like still in reality. But then you get to interact with these three dimensional kind of objects in reality. And it's like really well done. It's definitely the one and there's going to be incredible changes in the next couple of generations. But it gets rid of all that dizziness disconnected kind of stuff that happens with the the full VR experience, which I thought was really incredible.

I give it to Sam Altman because I don't think any individual has generated more attention on a private company and its effect on the world and the future. Then Sam Altman and OpenAI. And I think that he's been aggressive in raising capital. This guy can raise like he can raise and then he over bets on people. He finds talent. He gives them extraordinary comp packages, gets them to come and work on this extraordinary effort and then gets them to deliver results. He pushes the limits, he pushes th

Despite only seeing, I think, roughly 8% top line growth, the business saw its market cap grow by over a trillion dollars, 1.7 to 2.7 trillion this year. Just an incredible number. I mean, can you imagine if we ever said that 10 years ago, whether anyone would believe it? Consumer and enterprise strength and strategic strength, the fact that they were able to close the activation acquisition in this sort of regulatory environment. And then the strength that Sachs showed and the speed at which he

Google's already said they're going to appeal this case, because fundamentally, again, if this really were true, and there really was deep antitrust issues with this, you would likely have seen a federal agency come after Google, not a private company suing them in a civil case, this would have been a much more significant action if there really was antitrust behavior. But it's a lot easier to win a jury trial party to party where Epic can go to a court and say, hey, let's go after Google, they'

Amazon's been very clear that they would like to be a neutral third party in all of this. And so Amazon will make money no matter what they're going to have every language model on AWS. And their interest is in continuing to lower the costs continually and just make up for it in scale.

Is it going to be Microsoft who knows the, the idea that Amazon won cloud computing and it wasn't Microsoft or Oracle that won cloud computing or Google is crazy, right?

Is it going to be Microsoft who knows the, the idea that Amazon won cloud computing and it wasn't Microsoft or Oracle that won cloud computing or Google is crazy, right?

It's literally like anybody could become their own business person. It's really incredible.

fantastic so it's no longer reacting to what happens that customer a to protect the next 999 customers this is you know you've got patient zero here yes and you are doing experiments on them and you're seeing if they're inoculated or not and it's all happening in a virtual environment so there's you know no harm is coming to it um yeah but i think i think we're going to have to work hard

oh wow you're doing that in the lab right now so you're training it how to be the greatest black hat so that you can now be two steps ahead of the hackers using this so we are giving them the

one of the most interesting things that could happen is somebody like Tesla decides to either open source their chip or actually starts to sell their platform because if FSD gets to a reasonable level of scale, that entire platform system is a learning and inference system for the physical world. And I think that has tremendous applications

is like let's get this going this is going to turn into if they if they start putting this money towards stock buybacks uh this company is going to start to look like apple and right now this is

yes you'll have x number of 52 year olds in america with my bmi and my height and nobody's going to have that information so and then there's a whole

I said whoa if zuckerberg doesn't like to lose he's only won his whole life well it brad thinks that he can do this i'll just buy some shares that was at 91 a share or something and that one turned out to be exceptionally exceptionally correct again a non-consensus thought silicon valley could do more with less when we just lived in a culture of just keep spending it all works out in the end

Gmail was such a, you know, groundbreaking product because it was like, oh yeah, you just, you never have to worry about deleting your emails. They're just all there and you can search them. And it's like, whoa, yeah, you know, to do this with Eudora, whatever mail client you were using, was just really hard. Um, and all your mail was stored on your local drive.

when it puts in the thumbnail images, that's something very new, putting in the captions and linking directly to the source material. So now if my content was used, at least I can get a potential click. And of course, you know, this could be highly clickable stuff, but my Lord, you know, when you ask a followup question, I said, Hey, which of these is the most expensive and hard to get into is, Oh, sushi Ginza, which I've been to, and it is hard to get into. And it is very expensive. And then I

I trust Google for my searches. It's, you know, 98 times out of a hundred. The first link I click answers my question or the one box answers my question.

I started playing with this Google Bard and I was like, holy cow, Google's got some great product. And then they started dropping product. Boom, boom, boom. Lots of product, really fast.

i think one of the greatest things that's happening right now that you know could be a great benefit for this modern democracy is the sort of stuff that we've been doing on our podcast and rfk coming on board like last week and what sax did with twitter and i really hope that more politicians do that and that more people engage and consume that sort of content to make their decision

the cab companies are the problem in this, we have to remove the cab companies, and then lower the prices and make it more accessible.

bard came out and we started playing with bard and it feels like okay bard is that you know chat gpt three or 3.5 right so the gaps will close and then ultimately the race

yeah um i thought one of the most interesting things i saw in hugging face was they're just speaking to this uh exact you know impact of like who's going to win the open source or the closed proprietary

So it's been an amazing journey with Uber as my best investment in history.

The average map see did 14 rides or food orders in the quarter, that's almost five per month, which is very impressive.

I think the really interesting part of all this is lifts demise. They are a shrinking amount of this industry and Uber... What they have is they have the majority now of app driven rides. And they have a strong presence. I think they're number two in the United States behind DoorDash in delivering groceries and food... So it's not quite a monopoly, but it's a strong position in those areas.

Record high free cash flow $549 million cash and cash equivalents and short term investments 4.2 billion for the team over at Uber.

Total gross bookings were 31.4 billion of 19% year over year. So you know, the revenue grew 29% year over year, but gross bookings grew only 19%, which means Uber's, you know, more profitable and charging more for their services.

Q1 revenue, 8.8 billion. That's up 29% year over year.

I do think it's going to go faster than self-driving is my long answer to your short question.

this this could be a quick turnaround story for the stock and for this company

you should be thankful to YC for starting these companies. And then you should deploy strategies for investing in them when you think the price is appropriate. If the price is too high now, they're going to raise money five times more. So build a relationship with the founder, and then play the long game.

if Y Combinator is bringing you pre vetted companies, remember, they only accept one and a half percent. That's like going and hiring people from Harvard Business School, or Stanford GSB, you've used Stanford or Harvard as a filtering mechanism. So you don't have to, but it's the person coming out of Harvard GSB or Stanford, I'm sorry, Stanford's GSB program, or Harvard's MBA program, are they the same price as somebody coming out of Fordham's MBA program, or an MBA program from a university in

coinbase is a public company they tried to run the company you know as honestly as possible i actually believe that

this makes total sense because i just explained it with developers sdrs and producers of podcasts right so what's going to happen is something like angel list or crunchbase or linkedin like will have their own built-in llms and you'll be able to say instead of using advanced search on crunchbase or linkedin like people are currently doing to find startups that have raised their seed funding that are based in new york city and that have founders who went to stanford or an ivy league school right

amazon's ad business is booming right as jama pointed out earlier but so much more of consumer behavior is shifting where people are going direct to e-commerce sites and then the ads that are getting the highest click through and where advertisers are spending more and more money is on e-commerce sites i know this from experience on a couple boards i'm at where companies stopped spending on facebook and google and just started spending exclusively on amazon and that's where you get consumers tha

he turned that game around he turned that story right around he did the things that wall street wanted

Google's real lock in with publishers and the real reason they win in this marketplace is because they pay the publishers the most. And if you try and break this up, and if you actually do try and, you know, get into the weeds of this whole system and change it, the publishers ultimately will make less money.

yeah man what a swing bob chapek uh in and then out and now bob eiger back so i feel like i got this one wrong and right at the same time i still believe in the company deeply i think they're going to have a big win

if a guy can land two rockets at a time and he can literally restart the electric car movement and he becomes the number one car in any category he releases a car in how on earth would you bet against him to build software you have to be idiotic

i have 50 000 views already which is uh 10 of my follower count so this is an extraordinary

um but the truth is uh coinbase and shopify i think you know both brian and toby said you know we're this is a business this is not the place for politics we you know we have like one mission you know uh cryptocurrency for the world to free the world and you know help people who want to build mom and pop shops like enough let's get focused

so he's using two different ai assistants which means these ai assistants could start talking to each other and then if we had robots it could start building it pretty much so this is kind of when it happens like this ai inside of a robot painting robot could actually paint this for you

the modern day Disney corporation and what Amazon is doing with Amazon prime, what Google is doing with YouTube, that playbook was eventually figured out.

This was unprecedented in the world for 30 million people. And the company was throwing off billions of dollars, quarter in revenue, but more importantly, just making a massive cultural impact in getting people online and introducing them to the modern web and the internet.

i don't think so i don't think anyone should have a lifetime ban on these platforms

if you really support your um when you support your early content creators like this and you do something nice for them like uh getting in their handles early making sure they have a good one it will increase usage that's the right that's huge

I mean, Facebook had something called like, um, custom audiences, right? You upload your email list, and it kind of tries to find people, this would be like a better version of that. And if you think of Twitter as a platform for elite influential people, it has a smaller audience. So how do you take that audience and allow that smaller audience to be super

well, yeah, but building on somebody else's network effects is a really straightforward path, which is not what a VC should say.

i think the company would be worth 25 more today of travis zone because i

uber was a very bootstrapped company what people don't realize is it was only uber black and the uber black service was highly profitable taking 25 percent of a 50 or 100 ride from the airport is a pretty great way to print money as opposed to doing uber pool for four dollars or uber x for twelve dollars those eight dollar ubers were the ones where they were maybe uh losing two dollars a ride the black cars they were making ten dollars per ride and that is why they got so well funded

in fact uber was started right after the financial crisis and people looked at uber as a way to save money

You double your revenue or there's the door.

people at Snowflake are like literally taking the beach. You know, like they're just literally taking, invading other markets.

And then snowflake is firing on all cylinders.

Amazon is the most convenient of any product ever made for humans.

I mean, the idea that you could avoid Amazon, in today's day and age as a retailer, like this is a fantasy. Yeah, that people who were, you know, had tons of venture money, you know, kind of believe they could go direct and, you know, capture all that margin. And then it turns out, you know, sometimes you need distribution. So I like magic spoon, we had them on the pod, you know, that protein cereal, magic spoon is on Amazon. So you don't have to buy a subscription. They mean, it's a hell of a l

being a very big business for amazon and what a great company to take this on this is where when you have big companies you know we have this whole fear of big companies but sometimes when a big company takes something on like this they can take a 20-year approach to it and everybody benefits if you look at cloud computing and the benefit that's provided to society that anybody can create a startup and have access to this giant computer network and then instantly scale it around the world it's p

Greatest example ever would be the Tesla Roadster and the Tesla Model Y huge deposits, you had to put down your full amount.

i think amazon is going to get broken up in the next five years yeah and i think that's going to double and every price of everything yeah exactly when they separate these businesses and aws is its own standalone business and then everything else is in the other company you know what's going to happen the other company the retail company is going to raise prices 10 we're all going to be addicted to it and they're going to be wildly profitable because they have to be they won't have the ability t

What this really is about is about drugs because you've now interviewed two of the online drug companies. Amazon has a pharmacy, I believe, and this is an important business.

I said on CNBC before Disney plus even existed. I said, Disney plus is going to catch up and then exceed the number of subscribers as Netflix. I believe that's still going to happen.

40% energy savings in Google standard data center cooling systems.

So if 1% of your sales creates an attack vector, what's the logical thing to do? Dump it. Dump it. Cut it loose. Shut it down.

Yeah. I mean, he's, I understand why he's not popular right now, but he's also a product genius and their product genius, genius is over there.

I do think the world of the, of the founders and their ability to make great product.

I am holding my position. I was, uh, an investor before they went public. I had, man, I wish I could have distributed to my LPs at 30 dollars a share. Um, but I do think the world of the, of the founders and their ability to make great product. I know there were like some issues with like this massive denial of service attack where everybody wanted to short the same stock. Like, this is what happens with successful companies. They become sometimes too successful, but I'm holding. I do think it's

You know, like Tesla sell themselves. They don't have to do any marketing. You get into Tesla. You're like, I want one, you know, it's that simple.

I think this Russia thing was probably really good for spacex.

And Slack has got that similar DNA and then other things don't like, you know, some CRM system, Salesforce or whatever, like maybe the sales team loves it, but the CEO hates it or, you know, this group loves it, the marketers love it, but the, you know, creatives don't, you know, it is hard to get all those people correct.

whatever Stripe makes or Shopify makes very small percentages selling software, great business

i wish elon well in it and i hope it happens i i really hope it happens and yeah diligence is important

this is just an opportunistic buy is my take on it by somebody who's in the know we did a little take the other day what is the market cap of the company minus the cash in the bank which gives you true enterprise value if the true enterprise value seems insanely low after you net out their cash because the cash could buy that equivalent of stock if you just think of it that way people are bargain hunting hunting and what did i say last week people were asked for earlier in the week i should say

the prices have come down enough, the technology is getting there, the platform is, you know, you have some user base. So the idea that you would actually fund a VR startup today, you know, there was a lot being funded four or five years ago, people were losing their minds in the VC community, setting up oculuses and buying gaming PCs, and it was like, took two hours to set up and now your quest is on your face, and up and running without an iPhone, right? You can just use it with just the devic

it's pretty damn reasonable.

I would, if you're owning Amazon, I would be seriously not looking at quarter by quarter. I would be looking year over year, looking at each year, looking at their market share, and looking at the year over year growth. If you look at it that way and you start looking at it in a decade, you know, arc, I think this is the kind of company that there's no world in which AWS is not the leader in 10 years, in my mind, and Amazon delivery and e-commerce is not delighting people massively.

There's nothing that says they couldn't keep increasing the price of the commerce business, lose some growth, but have more margin. But why would you do that if Amazon Web Services prints money? I think their strategy is perfect.

let's just break even on it. Let's keep building out this infrastructure because it is still very early days for commerce. If you were to look at, put e-commerce aside, Amazon's total, you know, market share in commerce is very low. In e-commerce in the United States, it's growing significantly, but they want to be a global player, and it requires them to have massive logistics. It requires them to have trucks driving around, planes, warehouses.

because taxis suck. And then I expanded on that. But because taxis suck, three words was the reason I said Uber should exist. Now there were many reasons taxis suck. You couldn't get one. You didn't know where it was. You didn't know what the price was going to be of your ride. You had to handle money, you had to give a tip. They smelled bad, you couldn't rate the person they couldn't rate you. There was just all these issues with taxis, right? That we all had, there was a taxi line, there was a

Like the person who was watching, tragically decided, in the first version of it, he'd watch Harry Potter. Like, is this Tesla's fault? I don't think so.