Polymarket

No single number decides. Layers can disagree — that's the point. New to this? →

The platform's own early signals for this company — hard-to-fake, and where one preceded a real raise, the measured lead.

• SEC Form D — secondary demand 4 signals · latest 2026-09-22
• investor_commentary 1 signal · latest 2024-08-23

See the full track record →

• neutral prediction Unattributed

  Polymarket has you at 5% chance of winning.

• bullish prediction Jason Calacanis

  I know that in the United States, we're going to be able to participate in Polymarket soon.

• bullish endorsement Jason Calacanis

  our friends at Polymarket are really good. Shout out to my guy, Shane, also a Nick fan. We're going to have him on the pod soon. So let's put that in there. I want to get Shane on this week and start up soon. Just to talk overall about the business, he's crushing it over there.

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  this is the polymarket monthly volume clearly spiked right around election time fell very rapidly and people were worried it was going to do that but instead it's actually recovered and it's doing i would say pretty well

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  the poly market and the prediction market game have done very very well in and around the election cycle but i think people don't know that they actually held up reasonably well afterwards

• neutral fact_claim Chamath Palihapitiya

  they spent like over a hundred million dollars to buy that company and essentially what they were buying is you know a company that already had the rights to do this because it does take years or so to get permission

• bullish fact_claim Unattributed

  this week jason the cftc kind of said that they're going to be good to go now there's a little bit of nuance here because they bought a thing called qcx that was in the united states and that was the entity that the cftc said they're gonna have a no enforcement agreement with but essentially it does appear that making prediction bets prediction markets as a concept are going to be allowed here in the united states

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  if you're a fan of play market as we are on the show this is great news and i'm looking forward to see what impact this has on their numbers because what's fun about polymarket is that it's on the polygon uh blockchain which is an ethereum level two which means that i've been watching their usage data pretty closely and i'm fascinated to see what's going to happen once you get a bunch of americans showing up and making wagers bets or predictions whatever you want to call

• bullish fact_claim Unattributed

  did you hear what poly market is building? They are building prediction markets for earnings. Yes. What? Yes. My friend, this just came out. How did I not know about this? I think this dropped today. We were very busy news cycle for a Monday, but this is the, uh, if you're on the audio version, I'm showing the poly market earnings calendar, which shows, uh, what people think is going to happen on a percentage basis. So we click into, let's say, I think this is FedEx right here. What do we got? T

• bullish fact_claim Jason Calacanis

  great partnership with them, too.

• bullish prediction Unattributed

  what the sharps the most skin in the game individuals think will happen is where people are going to start so these things are going to you know really um change the world

• bullish endorsement Unattributed

  i don't need to hear somebody pontificate on what's going to happen in this election in this sports event i can just look at the polymarket i'm just going to look at calci i'm just going to look at these prediction markets and i'm going to start there

• bullish endorsement Unattributed

  there's a group of people who are going to just say like why would he even bother reading this story or listening to you know whatever it is fox business cnbc i don't need to hear somebody pontificate on what's going to happen in this election in this sports event i can just look at the polymarket i'm just going to look at calci i'm just going to look at these prediction markets and i'm going to start there

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  you know we're in a different era these are asset-like businesses i don't think they're trying to like do what uber and doordash did or lyft and doordash i'm sorry uber and lyft and doordash did which is lose money on every transaction um and i think the polymarket valuations misreported um i'll leave it at that uh yeah i mean polymarket's a big company

• bearish criticism Unattributed

  i think the polymarket valuations misreported

• mixed prediction Unattributed

  so we're about to see this uber lyft kind of competition between these two well-known companies go insane because they're about to each have nine figures of extra cash on hand which i think is going to lead to a lot of innovation and advertising but uh i do worry about burn a little bit when i see two competitors raise this much money so quickly

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  polymarket their arch competitor uh is reported to be raising as much as 200 million at at least a billion dollar valuation and i believe founders fund is pipped as the lead investor there

• bullish endorsement Chamath Palihapitiya

  I think these are really good businesses, but they are some combination of entertainment and gambling. I don't think that these things are as useful directional indicators as they are just really interesting businesses that allow people to bet and wager on all kinds of random things.

• neutral assessment Chamath Palihapitiya

  The thing with prediction markets is, it's not just that, there will be those things. But then there are going to be these fundamental markets that are purely about inside information. And the question is, what can a regulatory body or a society do about that? And I think the answer is not much. And the reason is, is that if you try to regulate this, it looks like a securities market. And I think the problem there is that these things are too fluid, and too dynamic, and too ephemeral, for them t

1. 2028-02-15 I know that in the United States, we're going to be able to participate in Polymarket soon. · Prediction · pending

VentureSignalScore 56.9/100 for polymarket, composed from 1 of 4 components (index v0 cross-signal), discounted ×0.79 for 30% signal coverage