0%
0/1 resolved calls right
3 scored · avg 5
single source
9
companies · 11 data points
The revenue scale of OpenAI and Anthropic will be larger than AWS by the end of 2026, and potentially larger than all of Microsoft by 2028.
What happened: The prediction's timeframe extends to end of 2026 (vs AWS) and 2028 (vs Microsoft), which have not yet passed. As of 2024, AWS generates ~$100B annual revenue and Microsoft ~$240B, while OpenAI's annualized revenue is estimated at ~$2-4B and Anthropic's is smaller, making the prediction extremely unlikely to materialize even with rapid growth.
Verify at source ↗SpaceX will go public (IPO) in the next few weeks.
What happened: SpaceX did not go public; the company remains private as of 2025, and Elon Musk has repeatedly stated he has no plans for a SpaceX IPO.
Verify at source ↗The combined exit value of three upcoming major IPOs (including SpaceX and Anthropic) will exceed the total exits of the unicorn economy over the past 10 years.
What happened: As of current knowledge, neither SpaceX nor Anthropic has completed an IPO, so the predicted outcome regarding combined exit values cannot yet be assessed.
Verify at source ↗We've seen Anthropic, we have data in here that I think it took him about a year to get to their first billion in revenue. It took him three months to get to the next billion, and then it took him two months to get to the next billion after that, right? So, he's probably seeing how quickly ChatGPT is growing, social users, how quickly Anthropic is growing, business users through their API, and thinking, I don't have two years to wait in European regulatory purgatory.
the Magnificent Six or Seven, these are the largest companies in the world, incredible businesses with CEOs like Mark Zuckerberg, and you get to own that cohort at a pretty cheap earnings multiple for companies that even at the trillion-dollar scale are growing in excess of 15%.
And you get to back a founder like Jensen at NVIDIA, who many people don't know, but is the longest-tenured founder CEO in Silicon Valley.
If you're sitting at Amazon or Google and you're meeting these small companies, now you don't have to worry about your competitor buying that company because you know that the government will make it really hard.
if you invest in the Qs, you make 5.2, so 5x, 9x.
he told me, please remind the audience that I'm growing in excess of 60%. So I put that. That while I'm burning money, I'm actually getting much more efficient. So I said that I would obviously say that. And he also gave me a non-public data point around his cloud business, which is now 500 million of ARR, which was almost zero a few years ago.
Databricks is a founder-led company. Snowflake was more of a managerial-led company. Maybe that's one way to kind of interpret what happened. Maybe another is to say, if you're a public company and you need to be profitable for your shareholders, and your biggest competitor is private and can incinerate and burn a lot of money, maybe that makes a difference.
Snowflake was more of a managerial-led company. Maybe that's one way to kind of interpret what happened. Maybe another is to say, if you're a public company and you need to be profitable for your shareholders, and your biggest competitor is private and can incinerate and burn a lot of money, maybe that makes a difference.
But let's look at these three, DoorDash, Block, and Shopify. Three incredible entrepreneurs, Tony from DoorDash, Jack from Block, and Toby from Shopify. You can see that these companies have incredible scale. If you just look at the GMV and the revenues, you can see that over this period of time, they got significantly more profitable. But you can see that on a PE basis, the multiple shrank significantly, and the growth just wasn't fast enough to kind of offset the lower multiple.
whether it's DoorDash or Instacart or Block, you can see that even great new companies like those are available at pretty reasonable multiples.
But let's look at these three, DoorDash, Block, and Shopify. Three incredible entrepreneurs, Tony from DoorDash, Jack from Block, and Toby from Shopify. You can see that these companies have incredible scale. If you just look at the GMV and the revenues, you can see that over this period of time, they got significantly more profitable. But you can see that on a PE basis, the multiple shrank significantly, and the growth just wasn't fast enough to kind of offset the lower multiple.