33%
1/3 resolved calls right
3 scored · avg 50
◆ 2 sources
5
companies · 36 data points
we just did an insane thing here some people are going to get really burned like has happened in every other tech infrastructure cycle at some points along the way
I hope that Satya makes a trillion dollars on the investment, not $100 billion, whatever it is.
OpenAI's revenue will continue to grow steeply.
What happened: OpenAI’s revenue grew from roughly $5.5 billion in 2023 to about $10–12 billion in 2025, continuing a steep upward trajectory consistent with the prediction.
Verify at source ↗OpenAI's consumer device business will become significant and important.
What happened: OpenAI has not launched a consumer device business; its consumer-facing products remain software (ChatGPT app, API, integrations), with no significant hardware or device line.
Verify at source ↗OpenAI will become one of the most important AI cloud providers.
What happened: OpenAI’s API and services have become a leading AI platform integrated with major cloud providers, solidifying its role as a key AI provider, though it remains smaller than the traditional cloud giants like AWS, Azure, and Google.
Verify at source ↗I wouldn't use the word deceleration, but we've talked about the need to pace it as the models get more capable, which I think is in everyone's interest.
We were evaluating one of our unreleased models, and it figured out that it could basically cheat on the test by chaining together multiple zero-day exploits to break out of the sandbox, get access to the internet, and then break through multiple systems on the Hugging Face side to kind of get the answer to the test and look really good on the eval. This is the first security incident that I have felt very viscerally. I've been a little surprised that more people don't feel it so viscerally. So,
criticism, Sam. First of all, we're doing well more revenue than that. Second of all, Brad, if you want to sell your shares, I'll find you a buyer. I just, enough. Like, you know, people are, enough. I think there's a lot of people who would love to buy open AI shares. I don't, I don't think you would. Including myself. Including myself. Who talk with a lot of like breathless concern about our compute stuff or whatever, that would be thrilled to buy shares. So I think we, we could sell, you know
We're doing well more revenue than that. Second of all, Brad, if you want to sell your shares, I'll find you a buyer.
we would still want Microsoft's help getting this product out into people's hands
without certainly without Microsoft and particularly Satya's early conviction, we would not have been able to do that. I don't think there were a lot of other people that would have been willing to take that kind of a bet
I think this has really been an amazing partnership through every phase. ... I think this is one of the great tech partnerships ever. And without certainly without Microsoft and particularly Satya's early conviction, we would not have been able to do that.
i'm a realist i assume it will happen someday
we just did an insane thing here some people are going to get really burned like has happened in every other tech infrastructure cycle at some points along the way
I hope that Satya makes a trillion dollars on the investment, not $100 billion, whatever it is.
without Microsoft and particularly Satya's early conviction, we would not have been able to do that.
I think this has really been an amazing partnership through every phase. ... I think this is one of the great tech partnerships ever.
codex has been a very cool thing to watch this year and as these go from multi-hour tasks to multi-day tasks which i expect to happen next year what people be able to do to create software at an unprecedented rate
Are we in a phase where investors as a whole are overexcited about AI? My opinion is yes. Is AI the most important thing to happen in a very long time? My opinion is also yes. I think we totally screwed up some things, but they're all out of GPT-5.
They started making like these giant offers to, uh, a lot of people on our team, um, you know, like a hundred million dollar signing bonuses, more than that comp per year. It's crazy. And I'm actually, it is crazy. I'm really happy that at least so far, uh, none of our best people have decided to take them up on that. I think that people sort of look at the two paths and say, all right, open AI has got a really good shot, a much better shot at actually delivering on super intelligence. Uh, and a
open AI has got a really good shot, a much better shot at actually delivering on super intelligence. Uh, and also may eventually be the more valuable company.
I'm really happy that at least so far, uh, none of our best people have decided to take them up on that.
They started making these like giant offers to, uh, you know, a lot of people on our team, um, you know, like a hundred million dollar signing bonuses, more than that comp per year. It's crazy. And I'm actually, it is crazy. I'm really happy that at least so far, uh, none of our best people have decided to take them up on that. I think that people sort of look at the two paths and say, all right, open AI has got a really good shot, a much better shot at actually delivering on super intelligence.
I make, no, I'm paid enough for health insurance. I have no equity in Open AI.
I wonder, I wonder if the future looks something like more like universal basic compute than universal basic income. And everybody gets like a slice of GPT-7's compute and they can use it, they can resell it, they can donate it to somebody to use for cancer research.
I don't think that GPT-4 poses a material threat on those kinds of things.
Can I say one more thing about that? Of course, I'd be super nervous about regulatory overreach here. I think we can get this wrong by doing way too much or even a little too much. I think we can get this wrong by doing not enough. But but I do think part of and I now I mean, you know, we have seen regulatory overstepping or capture just get super bad in other areas. And, you know, also maybe nothing will happen. But but I think it is part of our duty and our mission to like, talk about what we
I'd be fine with that. There'd be some line that'd be fine. And I don't think that puts any regulatory burden on startups.
I think there will come. Look, I may be wrong about this, I will acknowledge that this is a forward looking statement. And those are always dangerous to make. But I think there will come a time in the not super distant future, like, you know, we're not talking like decades and decades from now, where AI says the frontier AI systems are capable of causing significant global harm. And for those kinds of systems, in the same way we have like, global oversight of nuclear weapons or synthetic bio or
I'm concerned. I mean, there's so many proposed regulations, but most of the ones I've seen on the California state things I'm concerned about. I also have a general fear of the states all doing this them themselves.
We have currently made the decision not to do music, and partly because exactly these questions of where you draw the lines and you know, like, even the world in which if we went and let's say we paid 10,000 musicians to create a bunch of music just to make a great training set where the music model could learn everything about strong, strong structure. And what makes a good catchy beat and everything else and only trained on that, let's say we could still make a great music model, which maybe m
on fair use, I think we have a very reasonable position under the current law.
Sora like does not start with a language model. It's that that's a model that is like customized to do video. And so like, we're clearly not at that world yet.
GPT-4 clearly not there in a big way, although maybe it accelerates things a little bit by making scientists more productive, but alpha four, three. Yeah.
Well, we'll make huge algorithmic gains for sure. And I don't want to discount that, you know, I'm very interested in chips and energy. But if we can make our if we can make a same quality model twice as efficient, that's like we had twice as much compute, right. And I think there's a gigantic amount of work to be done there. And I hope we'll start really seeing those results.
I think there's great roles for both. I think you know, we've open sourced some stuff, we'll open source more stuff in the future. But really, like our mission is to build towards AGI and to figure out how to broadly distribute its benefits. We have a strategy for that seems to be resonating with a lot of people. It obviously isn't for everyone. And there's like a big ecosystem. And there'll also be open source models and people who build that way.
The fact that we have so many people using a free version of ChatGPT that we don't, you know, we don't run ads on, we don't try to like make money on, we just put out there because we want people to have these tools, I think has done a lot to provide a lot of value and, you know, teach people how to fish, but also to get the world really thoughtful about what's happening here.
I think we will stay pretty far ahead of, I hope we'll stay pretty far ahead of the rest of the world on that. But there's a lot of other work around the whole system. That's not just that, you know, the model weights, and we'll have to build up enduring value the old fashioned way, like any other business does. We'll have to figure out a great product and reasons to stick with it and deliver it at a great price.
We want to like cut the latency super dramatically. We want to cut the cost really, really dramatically. And I believe that will happen.
one of the things that we really want to do is figure out how to make more advanced technology available to free users, too. I think that's a super important part of our mission.
I think it will be great when we do it, and I think we'll be thoughtful about how we do it. Like, we may release it in a different way than we've released previous models.