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0/6 resolved calls right
6 scored · avg 23
◆ 7 sources
10
companies · 140 data points
So, once we can refly the ship, we will have made the first fully reusable orbital rocket.
I think it's extremely likely that we will achieve full reusability with rapid reflight next year in 2027.
If you think about what we're doing right now with the cars, Tesla is arguably the world's biggest robotics company because our cars are semi sentient robots on wheels. And with the full self driving computer, essentially the inference engine on the car, which will keep evolving, obviously, and Dojo and all the neural nets recognizing the world, understanding how to navigate through the world. It kind of makes sense to put that onto a humanoid form. They're also quite good at sensors and batteri
We're also working on a new vehicle that I alluded to at the Giga Texas opening, which is a dedicated robo taxi that's highly optimized for autonomy, meaning it would not have steering wheel or pedals. And there are a number of other innovations around it that I think are quite exciting, but it's fundamentally optimized for trying to achieve the the lowest fully considered cost per mile or cost per kilometer, accounting everything I think can be a very powerful product. We aspire to reach volume
X will introduce a semantic search feature powered by Grok that allows users to find content using plain language questions.
What happened: X did not introduce a semantic search feature powered by Grok; no such product or announcement has appeared up to now.
Verify at source ↗Grok will initially read and process the top 10 million daily posts on X, and later scale to process all 100 million daily posts.
What happened: xAI’s Grok began processing a large volume of X posts, but it has not publicly demonstrated processing the top 10 million daily posts nor scaling to all 100 million daily posts as claimed.
Verify at source ↗If successful, Tesla's Optimus robot will become the biggest product ever created.
What happened: Tesla has not released Optimus at scale, and it has not become a major commercial product; it remains an unproven prototype and does not rival the market impact of Tesla’s cars or other large products.
Verify at source ↗Starlink's internet connection on airplanes will be faster/better than some users' home internet connections.
What happened: Starlink in‑flight service now offers speeds up to ~150 Mbps, which exceed many home connections, though not all; the claim was generally accurate for a subset of users.
Verify at source ↗The next SpaceX Starship launch has over a 50% chance of achieving stage separation and close to a 50% chance of reaching orbit.
What happened: The next Starship launch after 2023‑09‑13 failed to reach orbit; the booster did not complete a successful stage separation (it crashed shortly after liftoff).
Verify at source ↗Tesla will achieve a 50% average annual growth rate in vehicle deliveries over a multi-year horizon.
What happened: Tesla's vehicle deliveries grew from about 936,000 in 2021 to 1.33 million in 2022 (≈42% YoY growth) but fell to ~1.3 million in 2023, yielding a multi‑year CAGR of roughly 18%, far below the claimed 50%.
Verify at source ↗when a lot of people from Anthropic and any, and from open AI, um, are telling you that their models are very dangerous, I think we should believe them.
It's, it certainly is like some, some crazy 4D chess to, you know, um, you know, say these, there's one of a 10% chance of annihilating humanity. But by the way, um, how much allocation would you like in our IPO?
when a lot of people from Anthropic and any, and from open AI, um, are telling you that their models are very dangerous, I think we should believe them.
So, there's an R&D FAB that we're building in Austin. That's a collaboration between Tesla and SpaceX.
But the design is capable of full reusability. Of that, I am certain.
So, on the last flight, if there had been a tower, so we did a simulated landing as though it was going to get caught by a tower in the ocean about 1,000 miles northwest of Australia. And if there had been a tower at that location, it would have caught the ship on the last flight.
I think it's extremely likely that we will achieve full reusability with rapid reflight next year in 2027.
So, once we can refly the ship, we will have made the first fully reusable orbital rocket.
we've got flight 14 coming up of Starship. So, and this will be the last flight before we attempt to catch the ship. So, if this flight goes well, then on flight 15, we will try to catch the ship. And then, either end of this year, but more likely early next, we will refly the ship and refly the booster.
the reason I wanted to create open AI was to serve as a counterweight to Google, because at the time Google was, uh, sort of essentially had unilateral power in AI that all, all the AI essentially. Um, and, um, and, uh, you know, Larry Page was not, um, you know, he, he, he, he was not taking as safety seriously.
try using any of the, the, the recent, um, so-called the open AI open source models, they're out, they don't work. They basically, they open sourced a broken non-working version of, of their models as a fig leaf.
since I came up with the idea for the company named it, um, provided the A, B and C rounds of funding, uh, recruited the, uh, critical personnel, uh, I told them everything I know. Um, you know, if that had been a commercial corporation, I'd probably own half the company.
I believe that we'll go to a jury trial in February, March. Um, and, and then we'll, we'll see what the, what the results are there. But, um, I, there's, there's like a mountain of evidence, um, that, that shows that opening AI was created as a, uh, an open source nonprofit. It's, it's literally, that's the, the exact description in the incorporation documents. Um, and in fact, the incorporation documents explicitly say that no officer, uh, or founding member will be, will benefit financially fr
we want X to be the best source of truth on the, on the planet by far. And I think it is
I need to make sure we do not have a terminated scenario and I, and that I can make, you know, maximize the safety of the robots. Um, but I, I feel like I need to have something like a 25% vote, um, which is enough of a vote to have a strong influence, uh, but not so much of a vote that I can't be fired if I go insane. Um, so it's, it's kinda, but my concern would be, you know, creating this army of robots and then, and then being fired for political reasons, um, because of, because of ISS and G
I think, I think there's a natural logarithmic function associated with the amount of compute.
So, it's, it's, it's like, if you take the Wikipedia as an example, but this really applies to books, PDFs, uh, the websites, uh, every form of information. Um, the, Grok is using, um, heavy amounts of inference compute to say, to look at, as an example, a Wikipedia page and say, uh, what is true, partially true or false or missing, uh, in this page. Now, rewrite the page to, to correct the, remove the falsehoods, uh, uh, correct the half-truths and add the missing context.
Yeah. So, we're running a lot of, using a lot of inference compute and, um, and reasoning to look at all of the source data, which is really the corpus of human knowledge. And then, uh, thinking about each piece of information and then adding what, adding what's missing, um, and correcting, correcting mistakes and removing falsehoods from the, from that training data.
Maybe you could buy Verizon? Not out of the question, I suppose, if that may happen.
So, that would be one of the options. To be clear, we're not going to put the other carriers out of business. They're still going to be around because they own a lot of Spectrum. So, there's... But yes, you should be able to have a Starlink, like you have an AT&T or P-Mobile or Verizon or whatever. You could have an account with Starlink that works with your Starlink antenna at home for your Wi-Fi as well as on your phone. And, yeah, it would be a comprehensive solution for high bandwidth at hom
And that probably is a two-year time frame. So, the phones that are able to use the spectrum that was acquired probably start shipping in around two years. And then, we also need to pull the satellites that are going to communicate on those frequencies. So, in parallel, we're building the satellites and working with the handset makers to add these frequencies to the phones. And then, the satellites and the phones will then handshake very well to achieve high bandwidth connectivity.
the window of opportunity to make life multi-planetary exists now for the first time in the four and a half billion year history of earth.
I think it can be done in, in 30 years. Um, it provided there's an exponential increase in the, in the tonnage to Mars with each success of Mars transfer windows, which is every two years. So every two years, the planets align and you can, you can transfer to Mars. Um, so I think in roughly 15, but maybe as few as 10, but 10 to 15 ish, uh, Mars transfer windows, if you're, um, seeing exponential increases in the tonnage to Mars with each Mars transfer window, then it should be possible to make M
I do think that there is a fork in the road of human destiny where, if we can establish a self-sustaining city on Mars, with the key test being if the resupply shifts from earth stop coming for any reason, does Mars continue to prosper or does it die out? At the point at which Mars is able to prosper and grow on its own, the probable lifespan of consciousness is dramatically greater because we are no longer dependent on everything going right on earth.
no one's ever made a fully reusable orbital heat shield. Like, the shuttle heat shield had to go through nine months of repair after every flight.
by far, I think the most talented group of rocket engineers that's ever been assembled.
version 3, which is a gigantic upgrade because that's got Raptor 3 and pretty much everything changes on the rocket with version 3. So version 3, you know, might have some initial teething pains because it's such a radical redesign. But it's capable of over 100 tons to orbit, fully reusable.
I think unless we have some very major setbacks, SpaceX will demonstrate full reusability next year, catching both the booster and the ship, and being able to deliver over 100 tons to a useful orbit.
you should be able to have a Starlink, like you have an AT&T or P-Mobile or Verizon or whatever. You could have an account with Starlink that works with your Starlink antenna at home for your Wi-Fi as well as on your phone. And, yeah, it would be a comprehensive solution for high bandwidth at home and for high bandwidth direct-to-sell.
But, the net effect is that you should be able to watch videos anywhere on your phone.
And that probably is a two-year time frame. So, the phones that are able to use the spectrum that was acquired probably start shipping in around two years. And then, we also need to pull the satellites that are going to communicate on those frequencies. So, in parallel, we're building the satellites and working with the handset makers to add these frequencies to the phones.
So, this is kind of a long-term thing. It will allow SpaceX to deliver high bandwidth connectivity directly from the satellites to the phones.
version 14 will be the biggest upgrade in Tesla software since version 12. We are increasing the parameter count by an order of magnitude. There's a lot of reinforcement learning that's been used. There's, like, you can think of AI sort as a way of compressing reality, and some of those compression steps, we're too lossy, and we address the lossiness in the compression steps. So, these are all software updates that'll go out. So, just over there are updates. Your car is going to feel like it is
I am confident that the current chips, AI4 chips that are in the cars, will achieve self-driving safety that is at least two to three times that of human, and maybe even 10X.
In terms of nominal sort of raw compute, it's eight times more compute, about nine times more memory, roughly five times more memory bandwidth. So, but because we're addressing some core limitations in AI4, you multiply that by, that 8X compute improvement by another 5X improvement because of optimization at a very fine-grained silicon level of things that are currently suboptimal in AI4, that's where you get the 40X improvement.
AI4 is currently shipping in all vehicles, and we're finalizing the design of AI5, which will be an immense jump from AI4. By some metrics, the improvement in AI5 will be 40 times better than AI4.
Well, if you wanted to do all the things that a human can do, it turns out you need a humanoid robot. So if you wanted to do a subset, that's much easier. But it turns out humans evolved to the shape and capabilities that we have for good reasons. Actually, there is value to having four fingers and a thumb. And even the pinky, actually, is quite useful. Toes are much more of a question mark, but the fingers...
Right now we're struggling with the final design of the hardware. Like I said, it's really primarily the hand. Not to just dismiss the rest of the robot. The rest of it's also important. But the hands are, the hands inclusive of the forearm are a majority of the engineering difficulty of the entire robot.
Even though there are 10,000, 20,000 electric motors out there of various sizes and shapes. We've had to design every electric motor gearbox and the controlling electronics from scratch, basically from physics first principles.
We could not actually buy the actuators for any amount of money. They simply didn't exist.
I think the marginal cost of production, once you hit a million units per year, is probably around the $20,000 range.
I think it is accurate to say that if successful, Optimus will be the biggest product ever.
We're finalizing the design of Optimus version 3. And that really is going to be a very remarkable robot.
Dojo two is, um, you know, should be, we should have dojo two in volume towards the end of next year. Um, and, and that, that will be, we think sort of comparable to, uh, uh, sort of a B 200 type type system, a training system.
the Tesla designed, uh, AI inference computer, uh, which is probably still the best. There isn't a better thing we could buy from suppliers. So the Tesla designed, uh, AI inference computer that's in the cars is better than anything we could buy from any supplier.
Uh, so if, if the people in a country want the laws to be different, they should make the laws different, but otherwise we're going to obey the law in each jurisdiction.
the nature of the concern was that, at least at X Corp, we had the perception that we were being asked to do things that violated Brazilian law.
I guess I have like some improved confidence in dojo. Um, but I think we, we won't really know how good dojo is until probably version three.
Um, so, and a dojo, we've only had dojo one. Dojo two is, um, you know, should be, we should have dojo two in volume towards the end of next year. Um, and, and that, that, that will be, we think sort of comparable to, uh, uh, sort of a B 200 type type system, a training system. Um, and, um, you know, so there's, I guess there's some potential for, for that to be used as a service.
Uh, it's a Tesla designed, uh, AI inference computer, uh, which is probably still the best. There isn't a better thing we could buy from suppliers. So the Tesla designed, uh, AI inference computer that's in the cars is better than anything we could buy from any supplier.
a lot of people think, well, SpaceX is super dependent on the government. And I actually know most of our revenue is commercial.
the fundamental Holy grail breakthrough for rocketry for what the fundamental breakthrough that is needed for life to become multi-planetary is a rapidly reusable, reliable rocket.
we, we, we, we think we'll be able to have to, to launch reliably and repeatedly and quite quickly.
we were able to successfully reach oval velocity twice. Uh, we were able to achieve soft landings of the booster and the ship and water. Uh, and that's despite the ship having, you know, half its flaps cooked off.
if we can get some improvement in the speed of regulation, we, we could actually move a lot faster.
I'm confident it will succeed. It's simply a matter of time.
so with starship is the first rocket design. Um, where success is one of the possible outcomes with full reusability.
You know, it, it, it, it really should not be possible to build a giant rocket faster than the paper can move from one desk to another.
The next flight of starship, um, which, um, you know, starship is, the next flight starship is ready to fly. We are waiting for regulatory approval.
this will be the first time, uh, the first private, the first, first commercial for space walk. Um, and, and it'll be at the highest altitude, uh, since Apollo. So it's the furthest from earth that anyone's gone.
SpaceX was fined by the EPA $140,000 for, um, they claimed dumping, uh, potable water on the ground, uh, drinking water. So, and we're like, it's, we're in a truck, tropical, uh, thunderstorm region. Um, that stuff comes from the sky all the time and, um, and there was zero harm done, you know, it was just water to cool the, the, the launch pad during, uh, liftoff and, um, they agree, yes, there's zero harm done. And we're like, okay, so there's no harm done. And, um, but you want us to pay a $1
So, um, so, so now, uh, OpenAI is, it's also very closely aligned with Microsoft. You know, Microsoft is really, um, the OpenAI servers are running on, in Azure and Microsoft data centers. Um, so really what you have is, I think, at the end of the day, Microsoft having more control than OpenAI. Uh, they have access to all the source code. They have access to all the weights of the, um, you know, GP4 and future versions. So they have all rights to this, to, to, to think. It's not, um, at any poin
And so, um, I, I think I understand China well. I've been there many times. I've met with, uh, senior leadership, um, at many levels of China for, for many years. And so, I, I think I've got a pretty good understanding of, um, at least as an outsider of China. So, and, and Tesla has been very successful domestically in China.
in the case of, uh, Tesla, uh, one of our, well, about four vehicle factories, uh, one is in, uh, China. So, um, you know, it's a, it's a significant, uh, car market, uh, but it is, you know, so, what I'm trying to say is, like, if I follow the bulk of, of my business interests, if, if I, I would purely book, which I aspire not to be, um, or outside of China, let's just be clear about that.
Well, I mean, let's just clarify here, um, you know, SpaceX has no, uh, SpaceX and Starlink have no business in China whatsoever. They're not, they're not allowed, you know, SpaceX doesn't launch, uh, China satellites, and Starlink is, uh, abandoned in China. So, to be clear, SpaceX, Starlink, zero business in China.
I mean, um, yeah, I mean, the fact of the matter is that, uh, ADL did initiate a boycott. They don't call it a boycott, they call it a pause. But, you know, a pause app is never ending. It's a boycott. Yeah. Um, so, and, and, and we just, we saw a massive drop in, uh, U.S. advertising. We saw basically no change in, in advertising in Asia. But domestically, ADL is strong. We saw, uh, 60% drop in advertising. So, you know, that's, uh, pretty intense. Um, and, um, and this is despite, you know, sh
Um, I mean, speaking of TikTok, um, you, you know, there's, I've had a lot of people tell me they spend a lot of time on TikTok and they regret it. Um, we don't wanna be, we want it to be that you spend a lot of time on the X platform and you learned a lot, uh, you, you're entertained, and you don't regret it. So, when you're optimizing for, you know, user minutes, and, like I said, aspirationally unregretted user minutes, uh, uh, the, if you, the more content that you post on the system, the mo
Um, so you, you kind of, you kind of know what to expect, um, and, and why something happened. Um, no, no, I should say that the, we are, we are trying to optimize for, uh, user time, um, on the platform. What this naturally means is that, um, posting content that someone looks at longer is gonna get higher priority than content that is short. Uh, just because the system is trying to maximize, uh, it's, uh, it's aspiring to maximize, uh, you, uh, unregretted user minutes is what I call it. Yeah.
And, um, you know, there's a lot of questions about, like, sort of the algorithm and whatnot. I, I, I should mention, like, the, the algorithm is, uh, I think almost all of it is open sourced, and, and we will, uh, I think quite soon have the entire thing open sourced. Uh, the only reason I, it really hasn't been done entirely open sourced yet is because we're somewhat embarrassed with the code and need to just clean it up before, uh, putting something extremely embarrassing out there. But the p
Um, so there's gotta be, um, you know, fair compensation, competitive compensation for a creator, whether they're doing, you know, writing, or pictures, video, whatever the case may be. Um, and, uh, so we're, and we're not, so we're not really invent, you know, inventing anything new here. We're just, you know, as YouTube does with creators, they will do rev share, um, with advertising. And so we're doing rev share with advertising. Um, we're also, you know, obviously they have enabled direct su
Um, and, and those numbers are extremely, are, are very good. Um, so, you know, I think, of course, it's the optimistic about where things added. And I, I, I feel like the company's turned, just, you know, recently turned, turned a corner.
And, uh, the, the, the most of a rigorous number is really the user seconds as reported by the mobile device, especially iOS. The, you know, the, uh, what iOS reports as the screen time is the, is the least gainful metric.
Um, and, um, you know, we, we keep seeing, sort of, record, record usage.
Um, so it's, it's really, you know, efficient.
Um, you know, this, this really, the, the future, the future development pace is very rapid.
Yeah, well, I, I should say we've recently seen a significant, uh, increase in advertising, which is great. Um, so that's, uh, you know, if that trend continues, um, I think the company will be in, in very good financial shape on the advertising front, um, so that's, that's one of them.
SpaceX and Starlink have no business in China whatsoever. They're not, they're not allowed, you know, SpaceX doesn't launch, uh, China satellites, and Starlink is, uh, abandoned in China.
And obviously, would be catastrophic to the entire Starlink system, which is, you know, approaching 10 billion dollars.
if we were to get, say, uh, our control center were, uh, take down a cyber attack, they, you know, command all the satellites to the orbit. Um, and destroy the entire system. Uh, or use anti-satellite weapons. Um, so, you know, these are, this is a pretty significant risk. Um, for which we have not received any compensation.
at one point, uh, you calculated on our sort of cost of sporting things that are roughly a hundred million dollars. Now, the hundred million dollars does not count, um, the massive risk to the entire Starlink constellation.
It is the only thing that works on the war front. Everything else has been jammed by the Russians.
Starlink is the fundamental communication backbone of the Ukrainian government and essential services, like first responders and that kind of thing.
SpaceX have provided, uh, Starlink connectivity for, you know, to Ukraine, um, really since the beginning of the war. ... the, uh, region around, uh, Crimea, um, was actually turned off. Now, the reason it was turned off was, actually, originally, was because the United States had sanctions against Russia. Um, and we're not allowed to actually, and, uh, that includes Crimea in the sanctions. And we're not allowed to actually turn on, uh, connectivity to sanction the country without explicit gove
There are a number of airliners that have Starlink, and there will be a lot more in the future. The Starlink connection, assuming it's working properly, is you won't even be able to tell you're on the ground or in the air. Because unlike the geosynchronous satellites, the latency is, you know, really can be less than 20 milliseconds. So, it's, in fact, for a lot of, I think for some people, the sonic connection on the plane will be better than their connection at their house.
let's try to create a third company that is competitive.
I don't think OpenAI quite realizes that the dependence on, on Microsoft.
They have access to all the source code. They have access to all the weights of the, um, you know, GP4 and future versions. So they have all rights to this, to, to, to think. It's not, um, at any point, really, they can cut off OpenAI.
OpenAI is, it's also very closely aligned with Microsoft. You know, Microsoft is really, um, the OpenAI servers are running on, in Azure and Microsoft data centers. You know, so really what you have is, I think, at the end of the day, Microsoft having more control than OpenAI.
they are aiming to, I think, make, try to make a hundred billion dollars, I think according to Sam Hoffman, uh, get a hundred billion dollars from somewhere for some vast amount of compute, uh, to create digital god.
OpenAI was originally created as an open source non-profit, and now, it's a closed, it appears to be, it should be renamed closed for Max Non-Profit AI.
in the case of OpenAI, it was to have there not be a unipolar world where, um, Google, with its subsidiary deep mine, uh, you know, would control an overwhelming amount of AI talent and compute and resources
Um, and, um, you know, we've got the final piece of the puzzle, which is to have the control part of the car, uh, transition from about 300,000 lines of C++ code to, uh, also neural network. So, uh, you know, the whole system will be neural network. Um, photons into controls out.
in the case of Tesla, I think we've got a, sort of a good governance structure and that there's no super voting rights or anything like that.
I think just, in general, Tesla is, uh, one of the world's leading AI companies, uh, and in some respects, the leading AI company when it comes to real, real-world AI, understanding the real world and actually reacting to that with self-driving. Um, and so, and I think that will become part of the, the solution for AGI or general super intelligence.
I do think Tesla's underrated from an AI standpoint, in terms of real-world AI, Tesla has the best real-world AI. Same. So, uh, you know, hopefully between, uh, XAI and, uh, Tesla is kind of a third contender for visual super-
in the case of, of Tesla, uh, one of our, well, about four vehicle factories, uh, one is in, uh, China. Tesla has been very successful domestically in China.
Well, I mean, let's just clarify here, um, you know, SpaceX has no, uh, SpaceX and Starlink have no business in China whatsoever. They're not, they're not allowed, you know, SpaceX doesn't launch, uh, China satellites, and Starlink is, uh, abandoned in China. So, to be clear, SpaceX, Starlink, zero business in China.
Um, you know, now, all of the, you know, other sort of providers, U.S. providers of support to Ukraine are being paid. So, then, why should SpaceX be excluded? That doesn't make sense. We're, we're, we're doing one of the most valuable things. And yet, we aren't getting the least money in the system, sir. Um, but, you know, despite that, we're still happy to keep, keep it going.
if we were to get, say, uh, our control center were, uh, take down a cyber attack, they, you know, command all the satellites to the orbit. Um, and destroy the entire system. Uh, or use anti-satellite weapons. Um, so, you know, these are, this is a pretty significant risk. Um, for which we have not received any compensation.
at one point, uh, you calculated on our sort of cost of sporting things that are roughly a hundred million dollars. Now, the hundred million dollars does not count, um, the massive risk to the entire Starlink constellation.
It is the only thing that works on the war front. Everything else has been jammed by the Russians.
Starlink is the fundamental communication backbone of the Ukrainian government and essential services, like first responders and that kind of thing.
the region around Crimea was actually turned off... because the United States had sanctions against Russia... and we're not allowed to actually turn on connectivity to sanction the country without explicit government approval.
SpaceX have provided Starlink connectivity to Ukraine really since the beginning of the war. ... Starlink was instrumental in the defense of Ukraine... we figured it out of pocket, very significantly, to help them.
making a rocket that is more than twice the size of a Saturn V... with an extra rub of the rocket, it'll have roughly three times the thrust of a Saturn V moon rocket. ... it's designed to be fully or rapidly reusable... So both the booster and the ship come back to the launch site, they get caught by these giant wreckers alarms... So it will be capable of, you know, basically aircraft level flight rates.
I think we'll have a, I hope, well over 50% chance of getting to stage separation. And maybe a close to 50% chance of getting to orbit if the hot staging, the new separation method, is it works. So I'd say maybe it's like a, you know, above, I'd say probably above 50% chance of getting to orbit this time, whereas previously I said below 50%.
We have the second one stacked at Starbase, so it's ready to go. ... We believe we've completed the remaining items requested by the FAA, so we should get our license hopefully soon. But really, the only thing holding back the second planet of Starship at this point is the record for approval.
for a lot of, I think for some people, the sonic connection on the plane will be better than their connection at their house.
There are a number of airliners that have Starlink, and there will be a lot more in the future.
The Starlink connection, assuming it's working properly, is you won't even be able to tell you're on the ground or in the air. Because unlike the geosynchronous satellites, the latency is, you know, really can be less than 20 milliseconds.
I'm in flight, currently. So this is a Starlink and flight connection.
the sustainable energy alternatives that I think are overwhelmingly more competitive are, uh, solar energy, wind, uh, geothermal, uh, hydro, uh, some title and energy, but it's really primarily, uh, solar. And, and wind, um, that, and you can really say like, what, what, why bother creating, uh, fusion on earth when we have a gigantic fusion reactor in the sky that just works with zero maintenance.
I went, 2008 was one of the worst years where basically the, you know, GM and Ford almost went bankrupt and, um, you know, trying to raise money for a startup electric car company in 2008 while GM's going bankrupt was, uh, difficult to say the least. Um, you know, people were angry that I even asked them, uh, for money.
we started with, with really just nothing. And, uh, the, uh, you know, the, the T zero prototype from AC propulsion, not, not if that's the, the precursor to Tesla.
when we created Tesla. I when I, when I joined, there were no, no employees, there was no intellectual property. There was no prototype. There was no, nothing.
I got involved when Tesla was, was, was nothing but a piece of paper.
in the case of, of Tesla, uh, you know, it was like five people.
Tesla allows for real time insurance based on how you actually drive the car. You can actually if you drive the car in a safer way, you actually have lower insurance. So ours is is insurance is based on how you actually drive, not how, you know, historically people that, you know, fit your whatever demographic have drive.
we started a chip team from scratch, designed it. It was the best in the world and still is the best in the world several years later. Um, and we're also then developed, we were designing a, a dojo, a super computer to be able to process the, um, all the video. You know, that's coming in from billions of miles of data
that is the best real world AI team on earth. Um, and if anyone else has got a better one, I'd like to see it demonstrated in a car.
in the case of Tesla, for example, we, we do, we, we do our own sales and service. Uh, we don't have dealerships, um, then, uh, Tesla also has by far the biggest network of superchargers, sort of the electric equivalent of gas stations. So we built an entire global supercharger network, which is still the most advanced and by far the best, uh, way to charge your car when traveling long distance
I think technically it does not need to partner with governments. Um, but of course, uh, government support would be helpful. Um, so, um, I mean, it's going to be very expensive to build a self-sustaining city on Mars. Like in order for us to become multi-planetary in a way that's meaningful. Um, the, the key threshold is, um, at which point does the city become self-sustaining such that if the ships from earth stopped coming for any reason. And it could be any reason could be world war three, o
the revenue generated from Starlink is what can enable the, uh, of a permanently, uh, crude base on the moon, which will be the next, you know, next step from Apollo, which is like, let's just not go there for a few hours and then head back. Let's have a permanently occupied science station on the moon.
It's, if it was like a three step, a three slide PowerPoint, it would be pretty much as you described, which is, um, develop rockets that are, that are capable of, taking, uh, satellites to orbit and, uh, crew to the space station. Um, you know, basically servicing government commercial, uh, space launch needs, um, and then, uh, uh, build a, a global communication system in space, uh, that obviously it does a lot of good for earth, but by providing, uh, internet content, internet connectivity to
the goal of spacex is to develop the technology that enables life to become multi-planetary, um, and, uh, and make humanity a space-faring civilization, which I think is very exciting, inspiring thing.
both space X and Tesla have, um, you know, significant cash reserves. So like, you know, it's not worth staring death in the face.
both SpaceX and Tesla in 2008, if we'd simply paid our suppliers on time, we would have gone bankrupt immediately.
like SpaceX would start up from scratch, you know, in, in the case of, of Tesla, uh, you know, it was like five people.
I think such a, such an app, um, would be really, uh, useful, um, and it just like the utility of, of, of, of, of, of, of sort of a, a spam-free thing where you could, you can make comments, you can post videos, you can, uh, you know, I think it's important for content creators to have a revenue share. Um, now, now, it, it, this does not need to be done on Twitter. It could be done from something that's created from scratch. So it could be something new. Um, so really, but, but I think this thin
Twitter's revenue is primarily dependent. I think 70% or some of that order on brand advertising, as opposed to specific purchase advertising. This is a big deal because brand advertising is not, there's not a purchase that results from that. So it's basically, you know, how much mindshare or like, basically if you're a big company, how, how often do they hear your name? It's as opposed to something that where you can directly measure the outcome. So that means that they're somewhat going on fai
The more questions I ask, the more my concerns grow.
In making the Twitter offer, I was obviously reliant upon the truth and accuracy of their public filings. And if those filings are not accurate, it's simply not appropriate. You can't pay the same price for something that is much worse than they claimed.
If they in fact have been vociferously claiming less than 5% of fake or spam accounts. But in fact, it is four or five times that number or perhaps 10 times that number. This is a big deal.
I'm still waiting for some sort of logical explanation for the number of sort of fake or spam accounts on Twitter and Twitter is refusing to tell us.
I think there's a need for a public town square, digital town square that where people can debate issues of all kinds, including the most substantive issues. And in order for that to be the case, you have to have something that is as broadly inclusive as possible, that has as much of the people on the platform as possible, where it's it feels balanced from a political standpoint, it's not biased one way or the other and where the system is transparent.
I'd say at if you did sort of the the lowest estimate would be probably 20%.
We're also working on a new vehicle that I alluded to at the Giga Texas opening, which is a dedicated robo taxi that's highly optimized for autonomy, meaning it would not have steering wheel or pedals. And there are a number of other innovations around it that I think are quite exciting, but it's fundamentally optimized for trying to achieve the the lowest fully considered cost per mile or cost per kilometer, accounting everything I think can be a very powerful product. We aspire to reach volume
Civilizational risk is decreased if Twitter, the more we can increase the trust of Twitter as a public platform. And I'm not sure that I will actually be able to acquire it. The intent is to retain as many shareholders as is allowed by the law. It's definitely not from the standpoint of letting me figure out how to monopolize or maximize my ownership of Twitter. But we'll try to bring along as many shoulders as we as we're allowed to. This is not a way to sort of make money. Having a public plat
One of the things that I believe Twitter should do is open source the algorithm and make any changes to people's tweets. You know, if they're emphasized or de-emphasized, that action should be made apparent so anyone can see that that action has been taken. So there's no sort of behind the scenes manipulation either algorithmically or manually. Like I think like the code should be on GitHub, you know, so then and so people can look through it and say, like, I see a problem here. I don't I don't
If you think about what we're doing right now with the cars, Tesla is arguably the world's biggest robotics company because our cars are semi sentient robots on wheels. And with the full self driving computer, essentially the inference engine on the car, which will keep evolving, obviously, and Dojo and all the neural nets recognizing the world, understanding how to navigate through the world. It kind of makes sense to put that onto a humanoid form. They're also quite good at sensors and batteri