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we definitely see some early warning signs here of people closing down the ecosystem, you know, in order to try to protect some of those advantages.
my guess is that if you're a competitor to Salesforce, you're immediately going to declare yourself open data and try and steal as many customers as possible
Bill girly made a you know basically famous venture capital guy he wrote a blog post that was really was probably blog post my opinion about how he believes the Android the android-based devices will just destroy the iphone over the next five years and that'll be like an eighty-five percent market share capture much like the pc did in the early days of the pcs versus the mac
the New York Times and its investigative team had excruciating detail about how this happened which comes from doing primary investigative work.
We have this interesting situation where Coinbase and Circle have done this deal where Coinbase will allow you to earn 4% on your stable coin balance, which, you know, to get that kind of return at another bank, even a neobank, you have to have your direct deposit go there. Here, whether it's 10 bucks or a million bucks, you know, you put it in stable coin with Coinbase and you start earning 4% daily.
But it started with the original, from my perspective, with the original Microsoft OpenAI deal where credits go in as a in-kind investment and then those credits are used back against, you know, Azure and Microsoft Cloud Services. And in that case, you know, and I said it back then, I'll say it again now, that's a cashless transaction. Like there's no cash, but it becomes an income statement revenue item for Microsoft. And I don't think that's ideal from an economic standpoint.
In the case of this Broadcom announcement, obviously, they have to build a workable chip.
It started with the original, from my perspective, with the original Microsoft OpenAI deal where credits go in as a in-kind investment and then those credits are used back against, you know, Azure and Microsoft Cloud Services. And in that case, you know, and I said it back then, I'll say it again now, that's a cashless transaction. Like there's no cash, but it becomes an income statement revenue item for Microsoft. And I don't think that's ideal from an economic standpoint.
he decided that he hadn't been driving a car for 10 years because he had had a driver. So he immediately switched seats with his driver. And then he, um, he went through the parking lot at his company. And if there was ever a car he had not driven, he'd leave a note on it and ask to borrow it. And then he would have the, uh, the owner of the car, tell him what they liked and didn't like. So he claimed he drove 170 cars that way. Um, and then he also liked BYD. They hired a European designer, um,
the CEO of Ford Farley, he went over there and I think had the exact same tour I did. And he insisted they ship him one back to Chicago and he's been driving it around and he's made some pretty extreme statements. Um, after having experienced John me, this car sells for about 40 K. Um, but he said, it's the most humbling thing I've ever seen. And he says, even beyond that, their cost, their quality of vehicles is far superior to what I see in the West. We are in a global competition with China a
Xiaomi is a super interesting story if people don't know. So I, I w I was fortunate enough to meet Lee June back in 0304. Um, but about 13, 10 to 13 years ago, he started a phone company and that's what Xiaomi is. And that company is now third, I think around the globe in handsets sold heavy in Europe, heavy in South America, not just China. Um, and three to four years ago, I think around 2021, he decided to build a car... they're making, uh, a thousand of these a day. They just came out with a
ByteDance, it seems to be the company to watch on anything consumer. And they already have an app. If someone said whose app is closest to open AIs in China, it's already an app from ByteDance, um, that's out there.
they'll have an advantage for Google cloud. And in order for that to be true, they need to, to have this crossover moment.
most of their proprietary TPU transactions are their own applications.
I still think it's particularly interesting that Google has to compete with open AI because open AI is going to lose 7 billion this year. And Google won't like, like they would never allow themselves to do that.
you got Microsoft maybe, I mean, they have access to open AI right now, but they might lose that or whatever. You've got Amazon, you've got Apple, you know, if I'm at any of those companies, I'd be funding a open source competitor
it may just be very well be that, that Alibaba just wants to make sure there's no bite dance, you know, that equivalent in the ice space. And that would be pretty rational.
liquidity is a private company and all of these things, which in some cases may have let these people leave because they didn't have any lock in. So that may that part may have backfired.
OpenAI, Anthropic, they were all paying people tons of money before Meta did this. They were paying them $10 million a year, you know, maybe smaller than what you were talking about, but they were doing it. And they were providing liquidity earlier, like two years in instead of waiting for four.
we have a handful of private companies, including OpenAI, who are voracious and audacious enough to burn two, three, four, five billion dollars a year.
we definitely see some early warning signs here of people closing down the ecosystem, you know, in order to try to protect some of those advantages.
you can't build a brand in the underbelly of Google because over time they will have to take that territory back, right? And I remember TripAdvisor peaked at $20 billion in value building a search engine, a recommendation engine in the underbelly of Google. And then when Google decided it was time to do recommendations on its own, TripAdvisor's value went from $20 billion to $1 billion.
Salesforce changed their terms of service. And in a way that includes not only the CRM data, but Slack data, which, you know, is a company they bought. And they're putting an MCP connector on top of it, which allows AI to query it. But they're telling, they're saying that you can't train on the data that's in there.
my guess is that if you're a competitor to Salesforce, you're immediately going to declare yourself open data and try and steal as many customers as possible
I can't fathom in my own brain how upset I would be if I were paying seven, eight figure license to Salesforce and they told me I couldn't train on my own data
I think there's a tiff between Windsurf and Anthropic, where Anthropic cut them off to all their models. You know, Windsurf was bought by OpenAI. Not that surprising, but just seeing these walls pop up.
And by the way, it went public at 17 and broke issue. Yes. Wow. Wow. So it traded under issue for about two months.
We're only looking at physical goods, their services, and intellectual property and net income that comes from companies like Meta operating around the globe.
That standard, I believe got started in Anthropic, but open AI has agreed to support it. And so another factor that plays out with whoever's most aggressive with the open standards is they might be able to take a lead in defining these things, which could be advantageous to them.
if you're, if you're on the Anthropic, you know, investment, you know, side, I, you know, I'd be scared. Like, like, you know, and I've, I've lived through this before. It is a, it is a, uh, a sport of Kings, if you will.
nobody called Google a research lab, right? It was a company. It had product teams, it had marketing teams, it had finance teams, et cetera.
I think they're accelerating at scale, but that's where the race is.
But the thing you mentioned is also, I think, worth noting, the success was a breakthrough. And maybe not compared to OpenAI, you know, but certainly I think Mistral or Anthropic or any of these players would have loved to have had the launch moment, if you will, the DeepSea cat.
Equinix has, over the years, run closer to one-to-one.
Now, you're assuming a three-to-one debt to equity, which I guess is something similar to what CoreWeave's done. Equinix has, over the years, run closer to one-to-one. And so that would be assuming a substantial amount of risk.
If I'm at Microsoft, got to secure my GPUs. I've got to make sure I'm spending enough.
And we've heard from people like Satya who say they're power limited.
Now, no one's more prone to risk than Masasana and SoftBank. So it's very plausible that would be their assumption.
the public markets as Amazon, as Google, as Salesforce, and so many others have proven. This idea that you can't innovate in the public markets is total nonsense.
It's not a dig to Sam. It's not a dig to anthropic. You don't want any one party controlling a platform technology.
this specifically Lama too, but Sonny sent me another one today, um, are really starting to gain market share amongst the startups that are using these tools.
when you search now for recipes on Google, it doesn't just give you 10 blue links. It really is thoughtful and they have a lot more information on it.
meta's pe ratio has fallen from 23x to 12x
I hate the, uh, five to 10% layoffs. You don't get any material impact to lowering your expenses yet. You get all the cultural negatives of having done a layoff. You end up with two or four, two or three of them, which I can't tell you. I mean, I have a friend who's at this company right now who keeps doing these little drip drabs and, and it's caught in it. Then it causes good people to leave because it just is like this constant, like, get it over with.
if you're planning an RIF or reduction in force and haven't executed yet, please see this as a lesson. Robin Hood did 9% in April, and now 23%, 5 to 10% riffs are all of the pain and none of the gain and are frequently followed by a 20 to 30% rift later, if you're gonna do it, try to do it only once.
when I see this blatant behavior over and over, it makes me wonder if one of the core tests of a monopoly is how much blatant copying and tying together, integrating a company does. This was, and is again, Microsoft playbook also appears to be Facebook core playbook. Also a second test might be in quotes. How do they behave in partner meetings? Over the years, I have found monopolist browbeat partners and suggest deal terms.
my biggest problem of the past six years was hyper competition. Like finding a CFO. No, not just talent. I'm talking about like Uber and Lyft and like hundreds of billions of dollars of money. Raised in the private market and shot onto the playing field out of a cannon. That's brutal.
I'm talking about Uber and Lyft and like hundreds of billions of dollars of money. Raised in the private market and shot onto the playing field out of a cannon. That's brutal.
well with the Tesla now if it snows and it can't see the lanes there's no soft driving right
look what happened with the 1 Tesla driver already like that like we have created a society where you know you can sue anybody for anything
and also Tesla couldn't have in service why is that a law direct yeah right nuts it's not it's absolute nuts
is he gonna wind up being the best entrepreneur of our lifetime business it seems like it I mean I think post jobs most people I know would say that and if you look at I mean you have to look at not only the combination of the execution of core Amazon but then the launch of a double yes which is pure genius and should have been launched by only got 40 other companies yeah IBM whoever like the world should have thought of that like it's it's remarkable the ecommerce bookstore created the technolo
it was fairly early because I think it was a single warehouse ... we still considered a bookstore in fact yes yeah we talked about in the in the in the my first initiation report we talked about other categories but most of the TAM calculus was done around around media not not around what they're doing today
so hacker one is a really cool company that I think once you hear about it sounds obvious so Facebook Microsoft Google and believe Firefox Mozilla have been running bug bounty programs for like over a decade where they pay hackers to discover vulnerabilities in its super logical because it's crowdsourcing right they tell you about it privately right don't post it on the web there's a there's a whole series now of policies around disclosure and what proper disclosure looks like but it's it's it's
the part that they we haven't figured out yet like the last three percent like which is snow rain like all the really really hard stuff it's really really hard
some of the stuff like uber saw in Miami there was a rule that like they were in several governments they had written rules that you couldn't have a car show up within a two-hour window of when it was ordered right by law
Bill girly made a you know basically famous venture capital guy he wrote a blog post that was really was probably blog post my opinion about how he believes the Android the android-based devices will just destroy the iphone over the next five years and that'll be like an eighty-five percent market share capture much like the pc did in the early days of the pcs versus the mac